Tag: paul phua strategy

In this latest “In Conversation” video for the Paul Phua Poker School, Wai Kin Yong and Rui Cao share three secrets for poker success, and remember an amazing hero call. Paul Phua picks the video highlights

If the Triton Super High Roller Series has a break-out star, it’s surely Wai Kin Yong. My young friend has had a superb run: in three Triton SHR tournaments between September 2016 and February 2017, he won twice and came sixth once, for a total of more than US$3m.
Watch this new video for the Paul Phua Poker School, in which Wai Kin Yong explores the secrets of his success with me and Rui Cao, one of the most respected of all French players.

  1. Learn from other poker players

In Wai Kin Yong and Rui Cao’s previous Paul Phua Poker School video, they talked about their aggressive playing style. But actually, as you will find in this new video, Wai Kin Yong achieved poker tournament success only when he tempered that style with a little more caution. In poker tournaments your chips are more precious than in cash: you cannot rebuy. It makes sense to take a slightly less aggressive strategy, and to narrow your hand range.
Here, Wai Kin Yong gives credit to his excellent mentor, the pro Mikael Thuritz. “He’s a great teacher,” says Wai Kin Yong. “I mean, he improved my game, like, 500% maybe!”
Rui Cao, too, stresses the importance of learning from others, no matter how high a level you reach at poker. “I used to watch a lot of videos,” says Rui Cao, “talk with a lot of friends, so it’s not a single person, but just a group of people who made me a better player. I like to talk with good players all the time, so little by little I become better, l think.”

  1. Play the poker player, not the cards

Wai Kin Yong and Rui Cao have played poker together many times, but when asked for their most memorable hand, they both immediately think of the same one.
On a board that ended up something like 7-4-J-6-A, Wai Kin Yong held just pocket nines. All the same, when Rui Cao check-raised the flop, bet the turn, then jammed the river, Wai Kin Yong still managed to call him down! It shows how important it is to know your opponent’s playing style: Wai Kin Yong evidently decided Rui Cao was capable of a triple-barrel bluff.
Wai Kin Yong explains: “I was like, ‘Hmm, it’s Rui Cao. I call with nines. Good!’ And he got so mad about it. I called with nines, ha ha!”
That fearlessness, that ability to trust your read no matter how intimidating the bet, is one of the many things that separates the true poker pro from the amateur.

  1. Play for love of the game, not just money

Finally, we discuss what it takes to be good at poker. Rui Cao believes you need to play from the heart as much as the head; for love, not money.
“If you play the game to win money,” says Rui Cao, “you can be a top player, but you won’t be world class. Maybe you are going to be able to win a little bit, but you’re not going to love it. I think loving the game is the most important thing in poker.”
Wai Kin Yong returns to the opening theme of the video when he says: “I think the most important thing for beginners is their willingness to learn, and admit that you’re not good, you know. Whereas l have known people who play poker every day, and they are losing every day, but they just think it’s  bad luck. And l don’t think poker has that much bad luck.
“You have to question yourself, and improve.”

Dan Colman, interviewed here for the Paul Paul Poker School, is ranked third in the world in live tournament earnings. Paul Phua picks three key tips on poker strategy from the video

A few weeks ago the Paul Phua Poker School presented a video interview with Dan Colman, the poker prodigy who has won more than $28m in live tournaments at the age of 26. Watch that video, and read about Dan Colman’s poker career, here.
I am delighted now to put out this second video interview between myself, Paul Phua, and the reclusive young poker pro. These are some of the important lessons to be learned from it:

Adapt to changing poker strategies

Dan Colman’s chief message here is one close to my own heart. You know that famous phrase, “poker takes a few minutes to learn, and a lifetime to master”? It’s true! I have played for years, against top pros like Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan and Dan Cates, and still find there is so much more to learn. Part of that is because, as Dan Colman says here, “poker is always evolving”. He doesn’t mean the rules of poker, he means poker strategy.
Terms like 3-bet and 4-bet and Game Theory Optimal, or the software that pros use to analyse the mathematically perfect strategy and the odds in any given poker hand, were unknown when more experienced pros such as Phil Ivey were starting out. Poker strategy is changing all the time. It’s our aim at Paul Phua Poker to help you keep on top of it. If, like Dan Colman, you are prepared to put in the effort to learn, the rewards can be great.

Seek out poker strategy advice

Also, remember that articles and videos are not in themselves enough. You know that old phrase, “two heads are better than one”? It’s a good idea to seek out the advice of friends who also play poker. It’s even better if you can persuade a more experienced player whom you admire to give you advice on problem hands.
I have been lucky enough to play against some of the best in the world. I am still humble and attentive when players like Tom Dwan comment on a hand I have played, and give tips on how I might improve my poker strategy in the future.
Even Dan Colman, despite his prodigious success, is happy to ask for a second opinion. As he says in our video interview, “A big part is having friends that are very good players and even better than you to where you are telling them a hand or why you did something then they can be critical of it and say, ‘No, I wouldn’t do that, I don’t like your play’.  Then you can think ‘Hmm, maybe you’re right’ and then work on that. So it’s important to talk poker with other good players.”

Vary your poker playing style

The other thing I enjoyed in this video interview was talking to Dan Colman about poker playing styles. We all evolve a poker playing style that suits our temperament: some are naturally more aggressive, some naturally tighter. Both styles can be effective when used correctly, against the right opponents at the right time.
But sometimes we must vary our poker playing style. As Dan Colman says in our new video interview, “How I play really depends on the players at my table, as well as my stack size and the payouts [in a tournament], because depending on if there’s a big pay jump and my stack is pretty short I might have to really be cautious and try to advance up the pay ladder. But when you have a big stack you can just put on a lot of pressure and win a lot of pots uncontested.”
There is another point to consider. As written in a previous Paul Phua Poker blog, sometimes we must do the unexpected to make money and win the pot. Or, as Dan Colman, memorably puts it, he will “zig when they think I’m going to zag”.
Don’t miss out on future video interviews with the pros. Subscribe for free to the Paul Phua Poker YouTube channel.

Who is Daniel Colman? Poker player profile

  • Born in 1990, Daniel (Dan) Colman was talent-spotted as a teenager by poker pro Olivier Busquet, who became his mentor
  • He became the first online hyper-turbo poker player to win more than $1 million in a year
  • He won his first WSOP bracelet, and $15.3 million, in the Big One for One Drop poker tournament at the age of 22
  • Daniel Colman has more than $28 million in live poker tournament earnings, ranking him third in the world

Want to improve your poker strategy? Paul Phua gives his insights into how to profit from this tricky hand

Pocket Jacks can be a tricky hand to play, especially for amateurs.
As for me, I’m always happy to see a pair of Jacks. It’s true, however, that there is no simple formula for how to play this hand. It depends very much on your position, your opponent’s position, your stack sizes, and whether they are loose or tight.
The problem with Jacks is that this hand is unlikely to improve: as with any pocket pair, there is only a 1 in 8 chance of making a set on the flop. And if an overcard comes, as it will often, there is a good chance you will be beaten. In this case hopefully you can have some reads on your opponent. If you don’t know them very well you can face some quite tough decisions – and there’s no easy guide for how to make them.

Pre-flop strategy with pocket Jacks

If I get pocket Jacks vs. an UTG (under the gun – meaning first to act) raise, I would usually just call. It can depend on his stack size and who my opponent is, but often I would end up just calling, especially if deeper than 50BB. If shorter than 50BB I would usually raise and gamble with him if he goes all-in, since then he may have AQ, or pocket 10s even, unless he is a very tight player. I would usually re-raise vs. a later position raise.
And in a tournament, if I myself am short-stacked with say 25BB or less and I get pocket Jacks, it’s usually a good hand to go all-in with. And if I have 15BB or less I would almost always be happy to go all-in.

Post-flop strategy with pocket Jacks

An overcard to your Jacks will arrive often, and if several players are in the hand, you are likely to be beaten at this point, and you should be prepared to fold. But if only one other player is in the hand, or sometimes even two, don’t necessarily give up straight away.
Let’s say the overcard is an Ace, and someone bets out. Then yes, I would often fold. But what if it’s a Queen? Or a King? Then you have to analyze deeper.
For instance, if a Queen comes, ask yourself: are they the type of player who raises pre-flop with AQ, or are they more likely to have AK? Are they a solid, straight-shooting player who only bets when they hit, or a more creative player who will semi-bluff with a draw? I have made a lot of money with Jacks against pro players by simply calling on three streets. They might for instance bet with a gutshot draw on the turn, then bomb the river when they don’t hit.
You might ask: why do I just call in this situation, and not raise if I think I’m ahead? It’s because if they have a weaker hand, they will fold to my raise, and I lose out on winning more money.
Even when my Jacks are an overpair I often will just call. If your opponent is representing something stronger than you, why would you raise him? If he has it, your money is gone. If he doesn’t have it, he’s bluffing. So this is one of the many mistakes amateurs make.

Common errors with pocket Jacks

Some less experienced players get so worried by pocket Jacks that they have developed an inflexible strategy: there is a group of players who will usually flat-call from any position, and fold to any overcard on the flop; and another group who usually raise extra-big pre-flop in the hope of taking it down straight away, without having to worry about post-flop strategy.
The first group will lose out on a lot of value that Jacks can bring, but at least they won’t get in too much trouble. The second group is in worse shape. Yes, everyone is likely to fold if you shove all-in or make a massive overbet pre-flop. But you won’t make much money from that. And if you do get called, it’s almost always by a better hand. AK will often call here, and you’ll be the slight favourite; but so will QQ, KK and AA, and then you’ll be in big trouble.
The same is true post-flop: some players with Jacks will raise big, even go all-in, if the flop is all low cards. They see it as protecting their hand. But again, they miss out on value when everyone with a worse hand folds; and they lose everything if someone calls with a lucky two pair or a set – or bigger overpair.
So you can see, there is no one easy way to play Jacks, and you must take many factors into consideration. But don’t give up. They are one of the best starting hands, so just try to play them well.

A quick guide to playing pocket Jacks

  • With pocket Jacks, you should usually call an UTG (under the gun) raise
  • You might re-raise vs. a later position raise
  • Only go all-in pre-flop if short-stacked
  • Don’t overplay your pocket Jacks post-flop: often you should call, not raise

 
 

Paul Phua gets tips on heads-up poker strategy from Dan “Jungleman” Cates in the latest of the Paul Phua Poker School video interviews with high-stakes pros

Dan “Jungleman” Cates is one of the best heads-up poker players in the world. Under his online poker name of “Jungleman12”, he has made more than $10 million profit on the Full Tilt poker site, putting him third on the HighstakesDB.com list of biggest poker winners.

Who is Daniel “Jungleman” Cates? Poker player profile:

— Dan Cates, 27, from the United States, is one of the world’s leading heads-up poker players.
— He plays online poker under the names “Jungleman12” and “w00ki3z”.
— He has made more than $10 million profit on the Full Tilt poker site.
— He has nearly $5 million in live poker tournament cashes.
— He often plays cash poker for high stakes in “the Big Game” in Macau and Manila.
— He is known for his aggressive style of play.

Full-ring poker vs. heads-up poker

In the last few years, he has also branched out into full-ring poker [multi-player cash games], testing himself in the highest of high-stakes poker cash games against myself and other pro players in Macau, Manila and elsewhere. The swings in “the Big Game” can be huge. After one marathon session in 2015, Jungleman (as we all call him) made headlines in the poker press when he Tweeted: “Sooo Manila didn’t go well, only lost about 38m hkd (5m usd)”.
He has made it back since!
In this new video interview for the Paul Phua Poker School, Dan “Jungleman” Cates discusses the differences between heads-up and full-ring poker. He even admits to an early mistake when he first made the switch:
“There are many more combinations of hands in heads-up rather than ring,” Jungleman says, “so a lot of times you can value-bet thinner, when it’s actually quite a large mistake in ring to value-bet thin when, like, a flush draw completes.”
What he means by “more combinations of hands” is that you should play a very much wider range of starting hands in heads-up than in full-ring poker. The winning hand at showdown is also likely to be no bigger than a pair; sometimes even just Ace or King high. Heads-up therefore suits an aggressive style of playing poker, which Dan Cates certainly has!

Aggressive poker playing strategy

One tip I like in this Paul Phua Poker video interview is where Jungleman says, “I guess one strategy for heads-up that I have is I just try to win all the pots that I possibly can. I’d see where people let me take pots from them and where they don’t.”
You see what I mean about an aggressive poker style! Jungleman is constantly attacking and probing for weakness, which puts less experienced poker players on the back foot. They are scared to call his raises unless they have a very strong hand, and in heads-up it’s rare to have one!
Interestingly, Jungleman has found that this skill is transferrable to full-ring. Trying to win many pots helps with the ring poker game, says Jungleman, “because sometimes ring players are so used to having stuff, are so used to playing against strong ranges, that they forget about little pots that they can pick up.”

Poker lessons to be learned

That is something I believe we can all learn from. Many of us get too comfortable playing poker the safe and “proper” way: wait for a premium starting hand, and be prepared to fold if you don’t hit the flop. As Jungleman puts it, you end up folding “because you have, like, Ace-10 off-suit under the gun. ‘Oh, well. It’s under the gun, I have to fold now!’”
But if you apply a bit of the heads-up poker aggression to ring, some of those guerrilla-style tactics of hitting hard with unpredictable hands when your opponents are least expecting it – or representing those hands when you don’t have them! – then you can take down a lot of small pots against opponents who aren’t prepared to take a risk.

Pre-flop strategy from Dan Cates

Pre-flop, Jungleman reveals in the video interview, “I prefer to 3-bet a hand like 5-6 suited more so than, like, Queen-10 suited. But I also try to balance calling and 3-betting with a hand like Ace-Queen off suit because… It’s more of a subtle thing, but if you call so much with Ace-Queen off suit it becomes a really obvious hand that you have.”
The key here is variation. Adjust your poker playing style to whether your opponent is loose or tight, and don’t always play the same hand in the same way. An unpredictable poker player is hard to beat. And they don’t come much more unpredictable than Dan “Jungleman” Cates.
More videos from the poker pros can be found on the Paul Phua Poker YouTube channel. Subscribe if you don’t want to miss out on future releases. It’s free!
 

The latest Paul Phua Poker School video interview is with French poker pro Rui Cao. Paul Phua explores the lessons to be learned

Rui Cao, the subject of this new video profile for the Paul Phua Poker School, is recognised as one of the best poker players in France. I first played against him six years ago, when he came to Macau to play in the high-stakes cash game known in poker circles as “the Big Game”. Rui Cao is an aggressive, risk-taking player, and he loved the excitement of these huge pots. Anyone who can thrive in such a high-pressure situation, where even the most experienced players can be at risk of losing their bankroll, deserves respect.


In his previous video interview for the Paul Phua Poker School, discussing aggression in poker with myself and Wai Kin Yong, Rui Cao admitted that he sometimes plays a little too loose: “It’s an ego problem,” he said. So this time we asked him what he considers the most important attributes for success in poker.
“I think being smart is a good point,” Rui Cao says in the new video interview, “and being able to learn fast is similar, to adjust fast to the game. Other than that, some human factors as well like discipline, patience, the ability to control ourselves, I think mostly.”

How not to go on tilt

I very much agree with him on this last point. In fact, I wrote a blog about this a few months ago. Even if you have total mastery of poker strategy and poker odds, you will still be a losing player if you don’t have the patience and discipline to apply the theory in practice. What is the point of knowing the best starting hands, for instance, if you get bored of folding and start to play everything you are dealt?
Part of not going “on tilt” is developing a philosophical attitude to the game. Yes, you got unlucky this time. But the longer you play, the more luck evens out. You get unlucky sometimes, you get lucky sometimes. If you make the right decisions, over time you will be a winner. So don’t let temporary setbacks affect you.
When asked in this interview how he deals with losing, Rui Cao says, “Quite OK. I just sleep for 15 hours and try to forget!” The swings in poker, he says, “are just part of the game”. The one thing you can do, he adds, is to examine whether any of the hands you lost were the result of bad play rather than bad luck. “I try to improve my game and losing is part of the game, I would say.”

An epic struggle with Isildur1

Rui Cao originally made his name playing Omaha, which can have even greater swings than Texas Hold ’Em. Asked which of his many matches was the most memorable, he recalls one marathon PLO session against Viktor Blom, better known under his online name “Isildur1” as one of the most skilled, aggressive and feared online players of all.
“We were four-tabling,” Rui Cao recalls in the video interview, “and maybe at one point I was down 30 buy-ins or something, and two hours later I was up like 30 buy-ins, and it was a pretty crazy upswing. We were, like, playing crazy, and it was a really, really fun session to play in.”
I like the way Rui Cao considers this game his favourite not because he bested one of the world’s top players, or because he made a lot of money, but because it was “really, really fun”! We poker players talk a lot about strategy, and discipline, and improving our game. Of course that’s important; in fact, it’s fundamental to the Paul Phua Poker School. Without it, we would lose money. And if we lose too much money, we can no longer play.
But let us not lose sight of the reason we all took up poker in the first place: it’s just a really, really fun game to play!
More videos from the poker pros will be going live weekly on the Paul Phua Poker YouTube channel. Subscribe if you don’t want to miss out. It’s free!

What is “short-deck” poker? This is just one of the things Paul Phua discusses with Phil Ivey in the latest Paul Phua Poker School video, along with strategy tips for beginners

Do beginners have an easier time at poker these days? In the latest Paul Phua Poker School video, we welcome back the great Phil Ivey. Last time we talked about the thrills and challenges poker holds, even for a player as experienced as Phil. This time we focus on beginners to the game, as well as a fun variant on Texas Hold ’Em called “short-deck poker” or “Six Plus Hold ’Em”.


Poker can be a hard game to break into: experienced players may punish you if they sense weakness, and though it is easy to learn the basic rules, it can take a while to understand all the odds and strategies. But as Phil Ivey says in this video interview, “Because of all the information that’s available, with the different teaching schools and things that are available now, different ways of learning that are out there, and with Paul’s teaching site, I think everyone is catching up.”
When Phil Ivey started out in poker, winning his first WSOP bracelet when he was just 23, internet poker was in its infancy. There were a few strategy books, such as Doyle Brunson’s Super System, but not the virtual library of tips that is out there now.
“I didn’t have schools,” says Phil Ivey in the video interview. “I didn’t have teaching sites. I didn’t have different tools I could learn from.” His most important lessons, he says, came just from trial and error.

A big tip for beginners

So one big tip for beginners is to learn everything they can from sites like Paul Phua Poker! And always be aware that however much you think you know, there is always more to learn. As Phil Ivey points out in our video interview, “beginners have a certain selection of hands in their minds that they want to play, and they just stick with that”.
Instead, he encourages players to experiment: “Start learning which hands you can play, in which positions, which hands you can bluff with, which hands you should call with.”
And as I say in the video, your play should also vary according to the structure of the games – whether there are antes or straddles involved, for instance – as well as whether the other players are aggressive or tight.
If it sounds complicated, that’s because it is! Phil Ivey has devoted two decades to perfecting his game. I know Phil pretty well, as we have played together many, many times. And, as I also say in the video, I think one of the most impressive things about him is not just his grasp of strategy, but his strength of character. He just never seems to go on tilt, and that’s something I try to model myself on.

“Short-deck” or “Six-Plus Hold ’Em”

There are more useful tips in the video, so do watch it. But one thing I perhaps need to explain more is the “short deck game” that we talk about in the interview. We often like to play this game when we get together. It is very similar to Texas Hold ’Em, but with fewer cards.
Before you start you remove from the deck all the low cards, deuce through to 5, which is why the game is also known as “Six Plus Hold ’Em”. It’s a more exciting game than Texas Hold ’Em in many ways, because with the low cards taken out you are more often dealt high cards and big pairs. You also have to adapt to a different set of odds. Post-flop, you have a nearly 1 in 2 chance of completing an open-ended straight draw by the river, for instance, compared with nearly 1 in 3 in classic Texas Hold ’Em.
As Phil Ivey says in the video interview, “There’s a lot of gambling involved. The equities run pretty close, so it’s pretty easy to get your money in the middle and be 50/50 or somewhere near that. It suits a more gambling style of player.”
Phil thinks this makes the short-deck game perfect for the beginner. But if so, I have just one piece of advice. You still don’t want to be playing against Phil Ivey!
For more Paul Phua Poker School videos, subscribe to the YouTube channel. It’s free!

Slow rolling, splashing the pot, string betting – these are some common mistakes to avoid in live poker, says Paul Phua

I have always preferred playing live, and more and more online players are making the transition. In the recent Paul Phua Poker School video interview with Dan Colman, we discussed some of the problems they face in terms of tells. But there is also a set of rituals and etiquette associated with live play that online players and poker novices need to be aware of. Not only does getting them wrong annoy the other players, it marks you out as a novice – easy prey!

  1. Don’t hit and run

In a cash game, you can leave whenever you want. In theory! In practice, if you do so straight after winning a very big pot, especially with a lucky hand, the other players will complain that it’s a “hit and run”. You should wait for at least an orbit.

  1. Don’t hold up the game

By all means think for a while before calling a big bet. But if you take ages over every small decision, it can be frustrating for the other players. In poker, time is money! Even worse is if you have your face buried in a laptop or mobile phone screen, and have to be prompted by the dealer every time it’s your turn to bet.

  1. Don’t go “bum-hunting”

In live cash games, you can ask to be moved away from a table where you feel you are at a disadvantage compared with other players. Equally, you can ask to be moved to a table where there are some easy “fish”. If you do that too blatantly or often, however, you may be accused of “bum-hunting”. A couple of years ago 35 pros were banned from the high-stakes poker room at the Palm Beach casino in London for poor etiquette including bum-hunting.

  1. Have a massage, eat some food – just maybe not at the same time

Long sessions can be tiring. That’s why most poker rooms offer massages while you’re sitting at the table. You can also order food at your seat, so you don’t miss any action with a meal break. That said, Victoria Coren Mitchell recently Tweeted her surprise when she saw this: “A poker player on another table is eating and having a massage at the same time. I’m tempted to hand him some nose clippers and a crossword.”

  1. Don’t talk about the hand in a multi-way pot

House rules vary on this. Some casinos apply this rule strictly; others turn a blind eye. Just be aware that you may be asked by the dealer to refrain from talking about the hand being played unless you are heads up. And it’s always wrong to do so when you yourself are not in the hand.

  1. Don’t forget to tip

It’s customary to tip the dealer when you win a good pot, and to tip the serving staff when they bring you food or drink. Exactly how much depends on how generous you are feeling and what country you are in. Watch what the regulars are doing, and follow suit.

  1. Don’t tap on the glass

When a player suffers a bad beat, they will often chastise the winner for their poor play in calling when behind. Instead, you should smile, congratulate them, and generally do everything you can to keep this “fish” happy for long enough to lose the money back again. And why do poker players say “Don’t tap on the glass?” Because, in an aquarium, tapping on the glass frightens away the fish!

  1. Beware of string bets

Different casinos in different countries all have slightly different rules. For instance, counting out the chips for your bet one by one when over the betting line is fine in most of America, but in England it’s called a “string bet” and only your first chip will count. Or a novice may throw one large chip into the middle, thinking it’s a raise, unaware that in live play any single chip counts as a call. If you’re not sure of the house rules, simply announce your raise before making it.

  1. Don’t splash the pot

When you bet, keep the chips directly in front of you. If you throw them into the middle, so that some of them “splash” the pot, it makes it hard for the dealer to work out how much you bet.

  1. Act in turn

Always wait for the action to come round to you before folding. In fact, don’t even hold your cards in an obvious folding position. This is because it helps players to know that players in late position are intending to fold, thus disadvantaging anyone who has previously acted.

  1. Be graceful when losing or winning

When you lose, don’t slam the table, swear or throw the cards at the dealer. It’s bad tactics as well as bad manners, since it tells other players you may be on tilt for the next few hands. And when you win a big pot, remember that means another player has just lost: celebrating loudly is like partying at someone else’s funeral.

  1. And above all, don’t slow roll

“Slow rolling” is when a player whose bet is called pretends at first to be caught in a bluff, and only belatedly reveals the winning hand. This may seem funny in a home game when teasing a friend, but in a casino game the whole table will line up to kick you!

The Paul Phua Poker School chart of common poker odds will dramatically improve your game. Paul Phua gives tips on how they should affect your strategy

In my last three articles in this mini-series on poker odds, I explained why they matter; how you can calculate them with a simple magic formula; and how to apply the odds in your play using a nut flush draw as an example.
But in the heat of the moment, you may not have time to calculate the odds, even using the magic formula. So be sure to learn this list of the most useful poker odds. I promise it will revolutionise your game.
I have added playing tips to each one, to show how knowing the odds can improve your strategy.

Odds of getting these cards dealt pre-flop

Pocket Aces: 1 in 220

If you are so tight that you will only play with Aces, you will have a long wait! You’ll be dealt pocket Aces – or Kings, or Queens, or any specific pair – just 1 in 220 hands. That’s no more than once a day in live play. You’ll get AK, however, once in every 82 hands.

Pocket pair: 1 in 17

It’s rare to be dealt a pocket pair, so don’t waste them. A large pocket pair (QQ, KK, AA, plus JJ or 10-10 depending on previous bets and your position) should raise or re-raise pre-flop, then bet the flop unless an overcard hits. A smaller pocket pair should usually “set mine”, ie call if it’s cheap, and hope for a set on the flop.

Two suited cards: 1 in 4

Suited cards look pretty, but can quickly drain your chips. It’s best to play them only when they are high cards in their own right, or when they are connected to give you an additional chance of a straight draw. Relax: now you know you are dealt them every four hands, you can afford to wait for better ones.

Odds of hitting the flop

A pair: 1 in 3

If you hold unpaired cards pre-flop, your chance of making a pair on the flop is just 1 in 3. The good news is that any single opponent is also unlikely to have hit.

A set from a pocket pair: 1 in 8

If you are dealt a pocket pair, your chance of hitting a set on the flop is about 1 in 8. Even so, it’s often worth “set mining” even with a low pair, as you can often win much more than 8x your investment if you do hit a set.

Odds from flop to river

Flush draw: 1 in 3

If you have a flush draw on the flop, your chance of completing it by the river is slightly higher than 1 in 3. If you can only double your money, eg you’re against just one other player, it usually doesn’t make sense to keep calling and chasing the draw.

Flush draw plus another draw: 1 in 2

As explained here, a flush draw with an overcard such as an Ace, or an inside straight draw, is a much stronger hand. Be alert to the extra outs that make flush draws much more profitable.

“Open-ended” straight draw: 1 in 3

An “open-ended” straight draw is where you hold four consecutive cards, so a card at either end would complete the straight. This gives you 8 outs: slightly worse odds than a flush draw. Beware too of someone else drawing to a flush. You then have only 6 outs, as two of your cards would also complete their flush.
“Gutshot” straight draw: 1 in 6
An inside straight draw, nicknamed a “gutshot” or “belly buster”, is where only one middle card will complete your straight – eg you have 5689 and need the 7. This is a huge leak for inexperienced players: you almost never have the correct pot odds to call with this hand. Look out for the “double belly buster”, where two middle cards could make you a straight, eg you have 467810 and need the 5 or the 9. This is nearly 1 in 3.

A full house from a set: 1 in 3

If you’re unlucky enough to flop a set against a straight or flush, you’re still in better shape than you might think. Your chance of getting a full house with the final two cards is 1 in 3. Your chance of two pairs becoming a house are, however, just 1 in 6.

All-in pre-flop: who wins by the river?

In the late stages of a tournament, short stacks are often forced to shove all-in with less than premium hands, and are then called by a player with high cards. As the following set of odds shows, there is always hope for the underdog (these odds will change slightly in different circumstances, eg if cards are suited or have straight draw potential):
Pocket pair v overcards, eg 55 v AK: 54%
Highest card v next two best, eg A6 v K7: 60%
Highest card v second highest, eg A9 v K8: 65%
Both cards higher, eg A9 v 72: 68%
“Dominating” your opponent by duplicating their kicker, eg A7 v K7: 74%
Higher pair against lower pair, eg KK v 88: 81%

In the third part of the Paul Phua Poker School series on poker odds, Paul Phua gives tips on predicting the future to improve your present strategy

Would it not be wonderful to have the power to predict the future? It would certainly be easy to make money at betting! Film-lovers will recall how using a sports almanac from the future made Biff Tannen a rich man in the second Back to the Future film.
We can’t all have a DeLorean time machine, but in poker we have the next best thing. We have the ability to predict what is likely to happen in the future, and to change our strategy accordingly.
In the first two parts in this mini-series on poker odds, I gave tips on why odds are important, and how to calculate them using a simple magic formula. We have seen already how knowing our likelihood of winning will affect how much we bet. Now here is an interesting application in practical play:

How to play a nut flush draw

As I said in my video on the best pre-flop hands, a suited Ace has great potential as a starting hand, even if your kicker is low. An Ace on the flop often gives you the best hand, though be prepared to fold to opposition if your kicker is weak. And if you flop a flush draw, you are in a very powerful position – more powerful than many people realise.
Let’s take the starting hand shown in my video: A4 of diamonds. The flop comes K5 of diamonds, with a 9 of spades. Another player bets. First, do what you should always do when someone bets: work out what hand they are likely to hold.
There’s no strong straight draw out there; if he has a flush draw it’s worse than yours; sets are uncommon. You can’t put him on AK, as he didn’t seem that strong in pre-flop betting, so you reckon he has a K: maybe KQ or KJ. So he likely has top pair, and you have nothing – yet! But you have great potential. Let’s work out how much.

Count up your “outs”

There are nine diamonds left to come that complete our flush, plus three Aces to give us a higher pair: that’s 12 “outs”. Using our magic formula for calculating the odds, that gives us 12 x 4 = 48% chance of winning by the river. [Mathematicians say the real figure is 45% –the magic formula isn’t perfect, but it’s close enough.]
That’s a nearly 1 in 2 chance of winning the pot! Pretty good odds. But the great thing about poker is it’s not all cold, hard math. It takes strategy and psychology to decide how to play those odds.
Your instinct here will be to call, and hope to hit. That’s a reasonable strategy, and the more people who are in the hand, the better it is. You will likely take all their money if you hit your nut flush – thus being paid several times your investment.
But let’s look at another, more advanced strategy, one that is particularly valuable if only one other player is in the hand.

Re-raising for “fold equity”

Unless you are keen to keep a number of people in the pot, a great tactic against a single opponent is to re-raise rather than call. Re-raising gives you “fold equity”. That’s a fancy way of saying it gives you an extra chance at winning: if they get scared and fold, congratulations! You’ve won the pot with the worst hand. And if they call, you’re still a coin-flip to win by the river.
To have fold equity, your bet should be big enough to make them fold. Simply doubling their bet is almost never enough. Even a weak King is likely to call and hope you are semi-bluffing with a flush draw (which you are!), or that they hit two pair on the turn.
So how much do you raise? That calls for psychology: is this player a holder or a folder? Some people are “calling stations” who will call almost any bet with a pair. With a person like this, you may need to raise bigger. Either way, do it confidently. If you are relatively short-stacked, you can even shove all-in. Don’t worry! You are nearly 50-50 to win even if they call.

If they do call – what next?

Maybe they realise you’re on flush draw. Maybe they’re just stubborn. Whichever, your opponent calls you, and the turn card is a blank – it doesn’t help. What now?
Usually now you have no fold equity: if they called a re-raise on the flop, they will often feel committed to call a bet on the turn. And now you have only one card left to come, not two, so your chances of winning are halved to than 1 in 4.
Unless you are a very experienced player with a strong read that your opponent may fold, it’s not worth inflating the pot with what are now poor odds of winning. You want to check. The good news is, your opponent will be wary of you and will usually also check, so you get a “free” card to see the river.
To sum up: when you re-raise on the flop, you have maybe a coin-flip chance of them folding to give you a small pot; and a coin-flip chance of them calling, in which case you then have a coin-flip chance of winning a big pot. Three quarters of the time, therefore, you are winning with a re-raise!

Other flush draws

Let’s just look quickly at other flush draw combinations that you might not be aware of.
Two more outs: Let’s say there was a 4 on the flop rather than the 5, giving your A4 of diamonds a small pair. Now you have two additional outs (either of the two 4s still to come would give you three of a kind to beat his pair of Kings), so you are even better than 50%.
Three more outs: Or let’s say the flop came K52. Now with your A4 you additionally have an inside straight draw, giving three extra outs. (There are four 3s that would make a straight. One of these is a diamond and you’ve already counted that out in your flush draw, hence three extra outs not four).
Three fewer outs: The flush draw to beware of is where you have no extra outs, just the nine cards for your flush. The magic formula tells us that your chances then are just 9 x 4 = 36%, ie 1 in 3. It’s a big leak in less experienced players’ strategy to chase this kind of flush draw against a single opponent.

In my next article on poker odds and strategy…

I hope the above example shows how knowing the odds – our own probability time machine that lets us peer into future likely outcomes – helps dictate our present strategy. In my next article, I will give you a useful chart of the most common. Learn it well! Read the next article.

Paul Phua introduces the hugely successful Malaysian poker pro Wai Kin Yong, who is interviewed in the latest Paul Phua Poker School video

In the last few months Wai Kin Yong has made headlines in poker circles for winning more than $3 million across three different tournaments. Last September he won the Triton Charity Tournament in Manila, and then just two months later the Triton Super High Roller Series Main Event as well. This February he also finished sixth in the Triton Super High Roller Series Main Event.
Even more remarkably, Wai Kin Yong is mostly a high-stakes cash player, not a tournament player. He says in this latest Paul Phua Poker School video interview that he only plays tournaments two or three times a year!


What is the secret of his success? And what can other players learn from him?
Asked for his biggest strength, Wai Kin Yong says in the interview, “I would think it’s my craziness, aggressiveness. I love to be aggressive, I love to be in control, I love to put pressure on other people.”

A key hand against Koray Aldemir

One such hand was picked by cardplayer.com recently as their Hand of the Week. It was against Koray Aldemir in the 2017 Triton Super High Roller in February, where initial pre-flop bettor Aldemir called every street on a 4-4-4 flop. Wai Kin Yong, on the button, three-bet (re-raised) on the flop and then kept betting on every street. Though Wai Kin Yong held just A2 while Aldemir had AK, it was Wai Kin who was the aggressor.
This is indeed an interesting hand. Many players would have been more cautious, but Wai Kin Yong’s aggression here is more strategic than it might at first appear. When Aldemir called Wai Kin’s three-bet pre-flop without re-raising again (as some might do with AK), he appeared weak, and Wai Kin Yong decided to exploit that weakness. Being on the button, Wai Kin could also use position to his advantage.
The turn came a 9, and the river came a Jack. Wai Kin bet not much less than the pot each time. Coupled with his re-raise pre-flop, this might suggest that he had a big pair to make a house. So Wai Kin will surely have been hoping that Aldemir would fold to such strength.
Wai Kin’s strategy nearly succeeded. After he also bet the river, Aldemir “tanked” (that is, he thought for a long time about his decision). But in the end he did find it within himself to call with just Ace high, winning with the superior King kicker, and Wai Kin’s stack was badly dented.
In this particular case, it did not work out for Wai Kin Yong. But certainly, aggression has its place in poker, as it gives you “fold equity”, which is to say that you win when you induce a fold as well as winning when you have the best hand.
If you are over-aggressive in too many spots, however, you will soon lose all your chips. In the recent Paul Phua Poker School video interview featuring Wai Kin Yong and Rui Cao, Wai Kin says he learned a lot about patience from playing with me! He also analyses his game constantly to find ways to improve it, which is a valuable lesson for any player.

Why you should always question your mistakes 

“I question myself a lot, always,” Wai Kin Yong says in our new video. “When I go back into the room I will question myself: ‘did I do something wrong today?’, or ‘have I made any mistakes today?’ And then I’ll ask around, I’ll ask people that I know. I’ll ask my mentor and see if I actually made mistakes, and try to improve on them and never make the same mistake ever again.”
Wai Kin Yong’s mentor is the poker pro Mikael Thuritz, and Wai Kin gives him a lot of credit for his recent successes. This, too, is a good tip for players. You may not all be able to find a mentor of Mikael Thuritz’s level, but find someone whose play you admire, whether online or in live play, and ask them if you can run some hands by them occasionally and get their opinion.
You will be surprised how many people are happy to help. It’s flattering to them, I guess!
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