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**Dan Colman, interviewed here for the Paul Paul Poker School, is ranked third in the world in live tournament earnings. Paul Phua picks three key tips on poker strategy from the video**

A few weeks ago the Paul Phua Poker School presented a video interview with Dan Colman, the poker prodigy who has won more than $28m in live tournaments at the age of 26. Watch that video, and read about Dan Colman’s poker career, here.
I am delighted now to put out this second video interview between myself, Paul Phua, and the reclusive young poker pro. These are some of the important lessons to be learned from it:

Adapt to changing poker strategies

Dan Colman’s chief message here is one close to my own heart. You know that famous phrase, “poker takes a few minutes to learn, and a lifetime to master”? It’s true! I have played for years, against top pros like Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan and Dan Cates, and still find there is so much more to learn. Part of that is because, as Dan Colman says here, “poker is always evolving”. He doesn’t mean the rules of poker, he means poker strategy.
Terms like 3-bet and 4-bet and Game Theory Optimal, or the software that pros use to analyse the mathematically perfect strategy and the odds in any given poker hand, were unknown when more experienced pros such as Phil Ivey were starting out. Poker strategy is changing all the time. It’s our aim at Paul Phua Poker to help you keep on top of it. If, like Dan Colman, you are prepared to put in the effort to learn, the rewards can be great.

Seek out poker strategy advice

Also, remember that articles and videos are not in themselves enough. You know that old phrase, “two heads are better than one”? It’s a good idea to seek out the advice of friends who also play poker. It’s even better if you can persuade a more experienced player whom you admire to give you advice on problem hands.
I have been lucky enough to play against some of the best in the world. I am still humble and attentive when players like Tom Dwan comment on a hand I have played, and give tips on how I might improve my poker strategy in the future.
Even Dan Colman, despite his prodigious success, is happy to ask for a second opinion. As he says in our video interview, “A big part is having friends that are very good players and even better than you to where you are telling them a hand or why you did something then they can be critical of it and say, ‘No, I wouldn’t do that, I don’t like your play’. Then you can think ‘Hmm, maybe you’re right’ and then work on that. So it’s important to talk poker with other good players.”

Vary your poker playing style

The other thing I enjoyed in this video interview was talking to Dan Colman about poker playing styles. We all evolve a poker playing style that suits our temperament: some are naturally more aggressive, some naturally tighter. Both styles can be effective when used correctly, against the right opponents at the right time.
But sometimes we must vary our poker playing style. As Dan Colman says in our new video interview, “How I play really depends on the players at my table, as well as my stack size and the payouts [in a tournament], because depending on if there’s a big pay jump and my stack is pretty short I might have to really be cautious and try to advance up the pay ladder. But when you have a big stack you can just put on a lot of pressure and win a lot of pots uncontested.”
There is another point to consider. As written in a previous Paul Phua Poker blog, sometimes we must do the unexpected to make money and win the pot. Or, as Dan Colman, memorably puts it, he will “zig when they think I’m going to zag”.
Don’t miss out on future video interviews with the pros. Subscribe for free to the Paul Phua Poker YouTube channel.

Who is Daniel Colman? Poker player profile

Born in 1990, Daniel (Dan) Colman was talent-spotted as a teenager by poker pro Olivier Busquet, who became his mentor
He became the first online hyper-turbo poker player to win more than $1 million in a year
He won his first WSOP bracelet, and $15.3 million, in the Big One for One Drop poker tournament at the age of 22
Daniel Colman has more than $28 million in live poker tournament earnings, ranking him third in the world

**Want to improve your poker strategy? Paul Phua gives his insights into how to profit from this tricky hand**

Pocket Jacks can be a tricky hand to play, especially for amateurs.
As for me, I’m always happy to see a pair of Jacks. It’s true, however, that there is no simple formula for how to play this hand. It depends very much on your position, your opponent’s position, your stack sizes, and whether they are loose or tight.
The problem with Jacks is that this hand is unlikely to improve: as with any pocket pair, there is only a 1 in 8 chance of making a set on the flop. And if an overcard comes, as it will often, there is a good chance you will be beaten. In this case hopefully you can have some reads on your opponent. If you don’t know them very well you can face some quite tough decisions – and there’s no easy guide for how to make them.

Pre-flop strategy with pocket Jacks

If I get pocket Jacks vs. an UTG (under the gun – meaning first to act) raise, I would usually just call. It can depend on his stack size and who my opponent is, but often I would end up just calling, especially if deeper than 50BB. If shorter than 50BB I would usually raise and gamble with him if he goes all-in, since then he may have AQ, or pocket 10s even, unless he is a very tight player. I would usually re-raise vs. a later position raise.
And in a tournament, if I myself am short-stacked with say 25BB or less and I get pocket Jacks, it’s usually a good hand to go all-in with. And if I have 15BB or less I would almost always be happy to go all-in.

Post-flop strategy with pocket Jacks

An overcard to your Jacks will arrive often, and if several players are in the hand, you are likely to be beaten at this point, and you should be prepared to fold. But if only one other player is in the hand, or sometimes even two, don’t necessarily give up straight away.
Let’s say the overcard is an Ace, and someone bets out. Then yes, I would often fold. But what if it’s a Queen? Or a King? Then you have to analyze deeper.
For instance, if a Queen comes, ask yourself: are they the type of player who raises pre-flop with AQ, or are they more likely to have AK? Are they a solid, straight-shooting player who only bets when they hit, or a more creative player who will semi-bluff with a draw? I have made a lot of money with Jacks against pro players by simply calling on three streets. They might for instance bet with a gutshot draw on the turn, then bomb the river when they don’t hit.
You might ask: why do I just call in this situation, and not raise if I think I’m ahead? It’s because if they have a weaker hand, they will fold to my raise, and I lose out on winning more money.
Even when my Jacks are an overpair I often will just call. If your opponent is representing something stronger than you, why would you raise him? If he has it, your money is gone. If he doesn’t have it, he’s bluffing. So this is one of the many mistakes amateurs make.

Common errors with pocket Jacks

Some less experienced players get so worried by pocket Jacks that they have developed an inflexible strategy: there is a group of players who will usually flat-call from any position, and fold to any overcard on the flop; and another group who usually raise extra-big pre-flop in the hope of taking it down straight away, without having to worry about post-flop strategy.
The first group will lose out on a lot of value that Jacks can bring, but at least they won’t get in too much trouble. The second group is in worse shape. Yes, everyone is likely to fold if you shove all-in or make a massive overbet pre-flop. But you won’t make much money from that. And if you do get called, it’s almost always by a better hand. AK will often call here, and you’ll be the slight favourite; but so will QQ, KK and AA, and then you’ll be in big trouble.
The same is true post-flop: some players with Jacks will raise big, even go all-in, if the flop is all low cards. They see it as protecting their hand. But again, they miss out on value when everyone with a worse hand folds; and they lose everything if someone calls with a lucky two pair or a set – or bigger overpair.
So you can see, there is no one easy way to play Jacks, and you must take many factors into consideration. But don’t give up. They are one of the best starting hands, so just try to play them well.

A quick guide to playing pocket Jacks

With pocket Jacks, you should usually call an UTG (under the gun) raise
You might re-raise vs. a later position raise
Only go all-in pre-flop if short-stacked
Don’t overplay your pocket Jacks post-flop: often you should call, not raise

**The latest Paul Phua Poker School video interview is with French poker pro Rui Cao. Paul Phua explores the lessons to be learned**

Rui Cao, the subject of this new video profile for the Paul Phua Poker School, is recognised as one of the best poker players in France. I first played against him six years ago, when he came to Macau to play in the high-stakes cash game known in poker circles as “the Big Game”. Rui Cao is an aggressive, risk-taking player, and he loved the excitement of these huge pots. Anyone who can thrive in such a high-pressure situation, where even the most experienced players can be at risk of losing their bankroll, deserves respect.

In his previous video interview for the Paul Phua Poker School, discussing aggression in poker with myself and Wai Kin Yong, Rui Cao admitted that he sometimes plays a little too loose: “It’s an ego problem,” he said. So this time we asked him what he considers the most important attributes for success in poker.
“I think being smart is a good point,” Rui Cao says in the new video interview, “and being able to learn fast is similar, to adjust fast to the game. Other than that, some human factors as well like discipline, patience, the ability to control ourselves, I think mostly.”

How not to go on tilt

I very much agree with him on this last point. In fact, I wrote a blog about this a few months ago. Even if you have total mastery of poker strategy and poker odds, you will still be a losing player if you don’t have the patience and discipline to apply the theory in practice. What is the point of knowing the best starting hands, for instance, if you get bored of folding and start to play everything you are dealt?
Part of not going “on tilt” is developing a philosophical attitude to the game. Yes, you got unlucky this time. But the longer you play, the more luck evens out. You get unlucky sometimes, you get lucky sometimes. If you make the right decisions, over time you will be a winner. So don’t let temporary setbacks affect you.
When asked in this interview how he deals with losing, Rui Cao says, “Quite OK. I just sleep for 15 hours and try to forget!” The swings in poker, he says, “are just part of the game”. The one thing you can do, he adds, is to examine whether any of the hands you lost were the result of bad play rather than bad luck. “I try to improve my game and losing is part of the game, I would say.”

An epic struggle with Isildur1

Rui Cao originally made his name playing Omaha, which can have even greater swings than Texas Hold ’Em. Asked which of his many matches was the most memorable, he recalls one marathon PLO session against Viktor Blom, better known under his online name “Isildur1” as one of the most skilled, aggressive and feared online players of all.
“We were four-tabling,” Rui Cao recalls in the video interview, “and maybe at one point I was down 30 buy-ins or something, and two hours later I was up like 30 buy-ins, and it was a pretty crazy upswing. We were, like, playing crazy, and it was a really, really fun session to play in.”
I like the way Rui Cao considers this game his favourite not because he bested one of the world’s top players, or because he made a lot of money, but because it was “really, really fun”! We poker players talk a lot about strategy, and discipline, and improving our game. Of course that’s important; in fact, it’s fundamental to the Paul Phua Poker School. Without it, we would lose money. And if we lose too much money, we can no longer play.
But let us not lose sight of the reason we all took up poker in the first place: it’s just a really, really fun game to play!
More videos from the poker pros will be going live weekly on the Paul Phua Poker YouTube channel. Subscribe if you don’t want to miss out. It’s free!

**With the results now in of Mike Noori’s prop bet to eat $1,000 of McDonald’s in just 36 hours, Paul Phua lists five more poker prop bets that were even crazier**

In the first part of my top 10, I wrote that poker player Mike Noori would be attempting to eat $1,000 of McDonald’s food in just 36 hours for a prop bet. The results of the weekend’s food-fest are in, and… he failed. To be fair, most people thought it was physically impossible!
Mike Noori entered the event in good spirit, dressed up as McDonald’s character the Hamburglar, and Tweeting video clips and updates as @McHamburgler1k. However, the writing was on the wall when he Tweeted: “10 hours in, $90 worth of food consumed. Mental state = shaky”. The final Tweet conceding defeat said that it had been “a fun time” and that the event had raised $14k for charity.
Will poker players go to any lengths for a prop bet? Judge for yourself, with the final five entries in my top 10, below.

Ashton Griffin and the ultra marathon

Poker players don’t always take the greatest care of themselves, which makes Ashton Griffin’s prop bet feat particularly impressive. In 2011, he claimed he could run 70 miles on a treadmill within 24 hours, and got enough people interested in the action to have $300,000 riding on success. Griffin was just 22, and hugely fit; he must have known he could do it, because he went out partying the night before his physical ordeal. Despite concerns for his health – his own parents turned up halfway through to plead with him to stop – he completed the 70 miles with 45 minutes to spare. Talk about “running good”!

Dan Bilzerian and the Vegas bike challenge

You might more readily associate Dan Bilzerian with private jets than bicycles, but the poker-playing playboy also completed an impressive physical challenge for a prop bet. He was bet $600,000 that he couldn’t cycle from Los Angeles to Las Vegas in less than 48 hours. Bilzerian had hardly touched a bicycle in years, so he left nothing to chance. He says he spent nearly $150,000 on preparing for the feat of endurance, including getting coaching from Lance Armstrong. In the end, it wasn’t even close: Bilzerian aced it in just 33 hours.

Joe Sebek and the face tattoos

Many prop bets involve tattoos, or haircuts. After being eliminated from the 2002 WSOP Main Event by Robert Varkonyi, Phil Hellmuth said he would shave his head if Varkonyi went on to win. He did, and Hellmuth honoured the bet. But the one the players likely regret most was a “last longer” bet between Joe Sebok, Jeff Madsen, and Gavin Smith: the loser had to get tattooed with the others’ faces. Sebok is the one with a permanent ink reminder on his skin of both men, while Jeff Madsen, who busted out next, “only” had to have a tattoo of Gavin Smith.

Ted Forrest, Mike Matusow and the crash diet

In 2008, Mike “The Mouth” Matusow won a $100,000 bet from Ted Forrest by losing 60lbs in a year. Two years later, the tables were turned: this time it was Forrest who had to get down to a trim 140lbs, by losing 48lbs. Forrest bet $50,000 at 10:1 he could do it in just four months, and another $100,000 at 20:1 he could do it in two. Two months to lose 40lbs is a tall order, but with $2 million riding on his crash diet, Forrest literally starved himself for the last ten days and made it just before the shorter deadline.

John Hennigan and the exile to Iowa

One of the most telling of all prop bet stories is told by Howard Lederer. Poker player John Hennigan was once bet that he couldn’t spend a quiet six weeks in casino-free Des Moines, Iowa. Some say the bet was $50,000, some say it was $100,000, but it certainly sounds like an easy enough bet to win. Hennigan even said he was looking forward to working on his golf. But after just two days he bought out of the bet and returned sheepishly to Vegas. It seems like the only prop bet a dedicated gambler can’t possibly win is a bet not to gamble!

Poker player Mike Noori’s bet to supersize himself on McDonald’s this weekend is part of a long tradition of outrageous prop bets. From Paul Ivey to Dan Bilzerian, Paul Phua picks out 10 favourites

Starting from today (Friday May 19), poker player Mike Noori has just 36 hours in which to eat $1,000 of McDonald’s food. Many people believe it cannot be done, estimating that he will need to consume about 70,000 calories – the recommended daily amount is less than 3,000! Others say it can: hundreds of thousands of dollars have by now been wagered on the outcome by poker players.
And why is Mike Noori putting his body through this ordeal? Because he was challenged to do so in a prop bet.
Some poker players will gamble on just about anything: whether it’s as small as what the next woman to enter the room will be wearing, or as big as eating several weeks’ worth of food in 36 hours! The most outrageous of these prop bets make great stories. Here are just ten of them, starting with some old-timers:

Titanic Thompson and the golf ball

Titanic Thompson, who hosted the very first World Series of Poker, is one of the most famous gamblers of all time. Sky Masterson, the hero of the musical Guys and Dolls, was based on him. He was no fool: when Titanic Thompson made a prop bet, he always had an angle. He would first secretly count all the watermelons in a truck and later wager, during a seemingly casual conversation with bystanders, that he could guess the exact number. Another time he bet he could throw a walnut over a building, having first secretly weighted it with lead. And when he bet he could drive a golf ball 500 yards, further than any golf pro had managed at that time, he found no shortage of takers for this seemingly impossible feat. But he simply waited till winter, then drove the ball, bouncing, over a frozen lake!

Amarillo Slim and the ping pong battle

Amarillo Slim was one of the great old-school poker players, who won the first of his four WSOP bracelets in 1972. He, too, would bet on almost anything. Perhaps his most famous prop bet was when he challenged Bobby Riggs, a former tennis champ, to a table tennis match. Slim’s one condition was that he could choose the paddles they used. He showed up with two frying pans, having secretly practised with them for months beforehand. He won the match. He successfully repeated the trick years later against a Taiwanese ping-pong champion, though this time his weapon of choice was Coca-Cola bottles!

Brian Zembic and his 38C breast implants

A magician and high-stakes gambler, Brian Zembic was famous for his bizarre prop bets: he lived in a box for a week and in a bathroom for another week. For another bet he slept the night in Central Park with $20,000 on his person. But one prop bet in particular made the headlines. In 1996, for a $100,000 bet, he agreed to have breast implants – 38C, to be precise – and keep them for a year. He even won the $4,500 cost of the operation from a cosmetic surgeon at backgammon. Not only did Zembic go through with it, he kept the implants for two decades. It was only last year that he appeared on the reality TV show, Botched, saying he had finally decided to have them removed.

Antonio Esfandiari and the lunges

What is it with magicians? Poker pro Antonio Esfandiari is also a former magician, and one of the most entertaining people you could share a card table with. His willingness to take a prop bet is legendary, though he often lives to regret it: he once swore off eating bread for a year, but cracked after a few minutes; a bet to remain celibate for a year was cancelled after nine days. But the prop bet that made the headlines, for all the wrong reasons, was one where for 48 hours he was not allowed to walk, only to lunge forward (going down on one knee then the other). It caused him so much pain that at the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure, rather than face going to the toilet, he made use of an empty water bottle at the table, and was promptly disqualified for “breach of tournament etiquette”. To Antonio Esfandiari’s credit, he offered up a sincere public apology for taking things too far, and donated his $50,000 winnings from the prop bet to charity.

Phil Ivey and the $150,000 steak

Phil Ivey is another player who is never afraid to take a big bet. His golf course wagers with Doyle Brunson and Daniel Negreanu are the stuff of legend, and he famously had a $5 million wager on whether he could win two WSOP bracelets in two years (despite his 10 bracelets overall, he only managed one bracelet in that period). But his craziest prop bet was when Tom Dwan challenged him to go vegetarian for a year. Phil Ivey stood to take down $1 million if he could swear off meat, something he had been thinking of doing anyway. But in the event, Phil Ivey said, he was too busy to work out how to eat healthily, and found eating pasta three times a day affected his poker. So he bought out of the bet after just nine days. The cost of that first juicy steak? $150,000…
Read part two of this Top 10, along with the eagerly awaited result of this weekend’s McDonald’s prop bet.

Slow rolling, splashing the pot, string betting – these are some common mistakes to avoid in live poker, says Paul Phua

I have always preferred playing live, and more and more online players are making the transition. In the recent Paul Phua Poker School video interview with Dan Colman, we discussed some of the problems they face in terms of tells. But there is also a set of rituals and etiquette associated with live play that online players and poker novices need to be aware of. Not only does getting them wrong annoy the other players, it marks you out as a novice – easy prey!

Don’t hit and run

In a cash game, you can leave whenever you want. In theory! In practice, if you do so straight after winning a very big pot, especially with a lucky hand, the other players will complain that it’s a “hit and run”. You should wait for at least an orbit.

Don’t hold up the game

By all means think for a while before calling a big bet. But if you take ages over every small decision, it can be frustrating for the other players. In poker, time is money! Even worse is if you have your face buried in a laptop or mobile phone screen, and have to be prompted by the dealer every time it’s your turn to bet.

Don’t go “bum-hunting”

In live cash games, you can ask to be moved away from a table where you feel you are at a disadvantage compared with other players. Equally, you can ask to be moved to a table where there are some easy “fish”. If you do that too blatantly or often, however, you may be accused of “bum-hunting”. A couple of years ago 35 pros were banned from the high-stakes poker room at the Palm Beach casino in London for poor etiquette including bum-hunting.

Have a massage, eat some food – just maybe not at the same time

Long sessions can be tiring. That’s why most poker rooms offer massages while you’re sitting at the table. You can also order food at your seat, so you don’t miss any action with a meal break. That said, Victoria Coren Mitchell recently Tweeted her surprise when she saw this: “A poker player on another table is eating and having a massage at the same time. I’m tempted to hand him some nose clippers and a crossword.”

Don’t talk about the hand in a multi-way pot

House rules vary on this. Some casinos apply this rule strictly; others turn a blind eye. Just be aware that you may be asked by the dealer to refrain from talking about the hand being played unless you are heads up. And it’s always wrong to do so when you yourself are not in the hand.

Don’t forget to tip

It’s customary to tip the dealer when you win a good pot, and to tip the serving staff when they bring you food or drink. Exactly how much depends on how generous you are feeling and what country you are in. Watch what the regulars are doing, and follow suit.

Don’t tap on the glass

When a player suffers a bad beat, they will often chastise the winner for their poor play in calling when behind. Instead, you should smile, congratulate them, and generally do everything you can to keep this “fish” happy for long enough to lose the money back again. And why do poker players say “Don’t tap on the glass?” Because, in an aquarium, tapping on the glass frightens away the fish!

Beware of string bets

Different casinos in different countries all have slightly different rules. For instance, counting out the chips for your bet one by one when over the betting line is fine in most of America, but in England it’s called a “string bet” and only your first chip will count. Or a novice may throw one large chip into the middle, thinking it’s a raise, unaware that in live play any single chip counts as a call. If you’re not sure of the house rules, simply announce your raise before making it.

Don’t splash the pot

When you bet, keep the chips directly in front of you. If you throw them into the middle, so that some of them “splash” the pot, it makes it hard for the dealer to work out how much you bet.

Act in turn

Always wait for the action to come round to you before folding. In fact, don’t even hold your cards in an obvious folding position. This is because it helps players to know that players in late position are intending to fold, thus disadvantaging anyone who has previously acted.

Be graceful when losing or winning

When you lose, don’t slam the table, swear or throw the cards at the dealer. It’s bad tactics as well as bad manners, since it tells other players you may be on tilt for the next few hands. And when you win a big pot, remember that means another player has just lost: celebrating loudly is like partying at someone else’s funeral.

And above all, don’t slow roll

“Slow rolling” is when a player whose bet is called pretends at first to be caught in a bluff, and only belatedly reveals the winning hand. This may seem funny in a home game when teasing a friend, but in a casino game the whole table will line up to kick you!

**The Paul Phua Poker School chart of common poker odds will dramatically improve your game. Paul Phua gives tips on how they should affect your strategy**

In my last three articles in this mini-series on poker odds, I explained why they matter; how you can calculate them with a simple magic formula; and how to apply the odds in your play using a nut flush draw as an example.
But in the heat of the moment, you may not have time to calculate the odds, even using the magic formula. So be sure to learn this list of the most useful poker odds. I promise it will revolutionise your game.
I have added playing tips to each one, to show how knowing the odds can improve your strategy.

Odds of getting these cards dealt pre-flop

Pocket Aces: 1 in 220

If you are so tight that you will only play with Aces, you will have a long wait! You’ll be dealt pocket Aces – or Kings, or Queens, or any specific pair – just 1 in 220 hands. That’s no more than once a day in live play. You’ll get AK, however, once in every 82 hands.

Pocket pair: 1 in 17

It’s rare to be dealt a pocket pair, so don’t waste them. A large pocket pair (QQ, KK, AA, plus JJ or 10-10 depending on previous bets and your position) should raise or re-raise pre-flop, then bet the flop unless an overcard hits. A smaller pocket pair should usually “set mine”, ie call if it’s cheap, and hope for a set on the flop.

Two suited cards: 1 in 4

Suited cards look pretty, but can quickly drain your chips. It’s best to play them only when they are high cards in their own right, or when they are connected to give you an additional chance of a straight draw. Relax: now you know you are dealt them every four hands, you can afford to wait for better ones.

Odds of hitting the flop

A pair: 1 in 3

If you hold unpaired cards pre-flop, your chance of making a pair on the flop is just 1 in 3. The good news is that any single opponent is also unlikely to have hit.

A set from a pocket pair: 1 in 8

If you are dealt a pocket pair, your chance of hitting a set on the flop is about 1 in 8. Even so, it’s often worth “set mining” even with a low pair, as you can often win much more than 8x your investment if you do hit a set.

Odds from flop to river

Flush draw: 1 in 3

If you have a flush draw on the flop, your chance of completing it by the river is slightly higher than 1 in 3. If you can only double your money, eg you’re against just one other player, it usually doesn’t make sense to keep calling and chasing the draw.

Flush draw plus another draw: 1 in 2

As explained here, a flush draw with an overcard such as an Ace, or an inside straight draw, is a much stronger hand. Be alert to the extra outs that make flush draws much more profitable.

“Open-ended” straight draw: 1 in 3

An “open-ended” straight draw is where you hold four consecutive cards, so a card at either end would complete the straight. This gives you 8 outs: slightly worse odds than a flush draw. Beware too of someone else drawing to a flush. You then have only 6 outs, as two of your cards would also complete their flush.
“Gutshot” straight draw: 1 in 6
An inside straight draw, nicknamed a “gutshot” or “belly buster”, is where only one middle card will complete your straight – eg you have 5689 and need the 7. This is a huge leak for inexperienced players: you almost never have the correct pot odds to call with this hand. Look out for the “double belly buster”, where two middle cards could make you a straight, eg you have 467810 and need the 5 or the 9. This is nearly 1 in 3.

A full house from a set: 1 in 3

If you’re unlucky enough to flop a set against a straight or flush, you’re still in better shape than you might think. Your chance of getting a full house with the final two cards is 1 in 3. Your chance of two pairs becoming a house are, however, just 1 in 6.

All-in pre-flop: who wins by the river?

In the late stages of a tournament, short stacks are often forced to shove all-in with less than premium hands, and are then called by a player with high cards. As the following set of odds shows, there is always hope for the underdog (these odds will change slightly in different circumstances, eg if cards are suited or have straight draw potential):
Pocket pair v overcards, eg 55 v AK: 54%
Highest card v next two best, eg A6 v K7: 60%
Highest card v second highest, eg A9 v K8: 65%
Both cards higher, eg A9 v 72: 68%
“Dominating” your opponent by duplicating their kicker, eg A7 v K7: 74%
Higher pair against lower pair, eg KK v 88: 81%

**In the third part of the Paul Phua Poker School series on poker odds, Paul Phua gives tips on predicting the future to improve your present strategy**

Would it not be wonderful to have the power to predict the future? It would certainly be easy to make money at betting! Film-lovers will recall how using a sports almanac from the future made Biff Tannen a rich man in the second Back to the Future film.
We can’t all have a DeLorean time machine, but in poker we have the next best thing. We have the ability to predict what is likely to happen in the future, and to change our strategy accordingly.
In the first two parts in this mini-series on poker odds, I gave tips on why odds are important, and how to calculate them using a simple magic formula. We have seen already how knowing our likelihood of winning will affect how much we bet. Now here is an interesting application in practical play:

How to play a nut flush draw

As I said in my video on the best pre-flop hands, a suited Ace has great potential as a starting hand, even if your kicker is low. An Ace on the flop often gives you the best hand, though be prepared to fold to opposition if your kicker is weak. And if you flop a flush draw, you are in a very powerful position – more powerful than many people realise.
Let’s take the starting hand shown in my video: A4 of diamonds. The flop comes K5 of diamonds, with a 9 of spades. Another player bets. First, do what you should always do when someone bets: work out what hand they are likely to hold.
There’s no strong straight draw out there; if he has a flush draw it’s worse than yours; sets are uncommon. You can’t put him on AK, as he didn’t seem that strong in pre-flop betting, so you reckon he has a K: maybe KQ or KJ. So he likely has top pair, and you have nothing – yet! But you have great potential. Let’s work out how much.

Count up your “outs”

There are nine diamonds left to come that complete our flush, plus three Aces to give us a higher pair: that’s 12 “outs”. Using our magic formula for calculating the odds, that gives us 12 x 4 = 48% chance of winning by the river. [Mathematicians say the real figure is 45% –the magic formula isn’t perfect, but it’s close enough.]
That’s a nearly 1 in 2 chance of winning the pot! Pretty good odds. But the great thing about poker is it’s not all cold, hard math. It takes strategy and psychology to decide how to play those odds.
Your instinct here will be to call, and hope to hit. That’s a reasonable strategy, and the more people who are in the hand, the better it is. You will likely take all their money if you hit your nut flush – thus being paid several times your investment.
But let’s look at another, more advanced strategy, one that is particularly valuable if only one other player is in the hand.

Re-raising for “fold equity”

Unless you are keen to keep a number of people in the pot, a great tactic against a single opponent is to re-raise rather than call. Re-raising gives you “fold equity”. That’s a fancy way of saying it gives you an extra chance at winning: if they get scared and fold, congratulations! You’ve won the pot with the worst hand. And if they call, you’re still a coin-flip to win by the river.
To have fold equity, your bet should be big enough to make them fold. Simply doubling their bet is almost never enough. Even a weak King is likely to call and hope you are semi-bluffing with a flush draw (which you are!), or that they hit two pair on the turn.
So how much do you raise? That calls for psychology: is this player a holder or a folder? Some people are “calling stations” who will call almost any bet with a pair. With a person like this, you may need to raise bigger. Either way, do it confidently. If you are relatively short-stacked, you can even shove all-in. Don’t worry! You are nearly 50-50 to win even if they call.

If they do call – what next?

Maybe they realise you’re on flush draw. Maybe they’re just stubborn. Whichever, your opponent calls you, and the turn card is a blank – it doesn’t help. What now?
Usually now you have no fold equity: if they called a re-raise on the flop, they will often feel committed to call a bet on the turn. And now you have only one card left to come, not two, so your chances of winning are halved to than 1 in 4.
Unless you are a very experienced player with a strong read that your opponent may fold, it’s not worth inflating the pot with what are now poor odds of winning. You want to check. The good news is, your opponent will be wary of you and will usually also check, so you get a “free” card to see the river.
To sum up: when you re-raise on the flop, you have maybe a coin-flip chance of them folding to give you a small pot; and a coin-flip chance of them calling, in which case you then have a coin-flip chance of winning a big pot. Three quarters of the time, therefore, you are winning with a re-raise!

Other flush draws

Let’s just look quickly at other flush draw combinations that you might not be aware of.
Two more outs: Let’s say there was a 4 on the flop rather than the 5, giving your A4 of diamonds a small pair. Now you have two additional outs (either of the two 4s still to come would give you three of a kind to beat his pair of Kings), so you are even better than 50%.
Three more outs: Or let’s say the flop came K52. Now with your A4 you additionally have an inside straight draw, giving three extra outs. (There are four 3s that would make a straight. One of these is a diamond and you’ve already counted that out in your flush draw, hence three extra outs not four).
Three fewer outs: The flush draw to beware of is where you have no extra outs, just the nine cards for your flush. The magic formula tells us that your chances then are just 9 x 4 = 36%, ie 1 in 3. It’s a big leak in less experienced players’ strategy to chase this kind of flush draw against a single opponent.

In my next article on poker odds and strategy…

I hope the above example shows how knowing the odds – our own probability time machine that lets us peer into future likely outcomes – helps dictate our present strategy. In my next article, I will give you a useful chart of the most common. Learn it well! Read the next article.

Paul Phua introduces the first in an exciting new series of videos for the Paul Phua Poker School YouTube channel featuring some of the world’s top pros

If you want to improve your poker and become a winning player, there is no better place to start than by watching strategy tips from the top pros. Phil Ivey, Dan Cates and Dan Colman have very generously given up some of their valuable time to film this video for the Paul Phua Poker School – and with these high-stakes cash and tournament players, “valuable time” is not merely a figure of speech!
Phil Ivey is a ten times World Series of Poker bracelet winner, and one of the most fearless and creative players of the game. Dan “Jungleman” Cates passed the $10 million online cash earnings milestone nearly three years ago. And Dan Colman has graduated from internet poker (he rose to fame in 2013 as the first hyper-turbo player to win $1 million on Pokerstars in a year) to take down $28 million in live tournament play.
The Paul Phua Poker School YouTube video team caught up with these players at the Triton High Roller Series in Manila this February, and their tips for beginners are just as insightful as you would expect. And it’s not only beginners who can benefit from their strategy advice.

Phil Ivey tells players that “an important thing is to be able to manage their money”. This is very true: many a player has gone bust by moving too quickly to levels they cannot really afford. For more detailed advice, see my previous Paul Phua Poker School blog on bankroll management.
Dan Colman recommends that you should “get out of your comfort zone”, and “play in difficult games”. This may seem strange: why choose a difficult game if you can find one with poor players instead? But this is something I myself did when starting out in poker. I challenged myself to play with some of the world’s top pros in high-stakes cash games, not because I arrogantly thought I could beat them, but because I humbly felt I could learn from them. If I have any skill at poker (and Phil Ivey has been kind enough to say that “Paul Phua is probably the best non-pro I’ve ever played poker against”), it is thanks to learning from the best.
And if you do find yourself up against more experienced players, Dan Cates’ advice in the video may prove especially valuable. He says, “The first tip for beginners would be to play tighter than they think.” Unless you are sure you can outplay everyone else around the table, you should pick your poker battles with care, going armed with only the best starting hands.
Those are just a few of the useful tips in the video that will improve your poker game. Watch it now to discover more, and subscribe to the Paul Phua Poker School YouTube channel so as not to miss new videos in the series. It’s free!

Unpredictable poker players in live poker games

Poker used to be thought of as a game mainly of flair and emotional intelligence. A good bluff, or the ability to peer into your opponent’s mind were considered the primary characteristics for a Texas Hold’em pro.

This was the era of the “live” player. One who thrived off the occasion. The face-to-face. Reading their opponents’ tells. The pressure. The emotion.
Now though, if you fast forward a few decades, the poker world has changed beyond recognition. Players analyze betting patterns, they discuss bet sizing and scrutinize fold equity and expected value. Investment bankers and engineering graduates from the world’s best universities now flock to poker. Instead of trading volatility in the world of finance, they are exploiting “thin value for maximum pay-off” in high stakes games, often online.
Poker has transformed into a game of rigorous calculation. It has automated, you could say. It has taken a leap towards the world of math and away from old-fashioned emotional intelligence. A lot of the world’s best and most successful players play percentages and probability.
However, that doesn’t mean that all those players who thrive on the cut and thrust of face-to-face, live play have had to cash in their chips and leave the table. They have had to learn to play differently. And some have found a technique that works – using the unconventional and unpredictable, to confound the percentage and probability based systems used by so many players nowadays.
Unconventional live players tend to play the player, not the numbers, and work outside the rules of betting charts. It’s like they are playing in a separate world from the more mathematical players. They are able to weave in and out of convention. It is often a difficult style to play against because it’s so unpredictable.
Most young pros would say that this “out of the box” approach isn’t the best way to play in the long run (partially because it falls so far outside their own models). That’s a good argument. But one thing is for sure. The unconventional players are great to watch!

Here’s a great example of where unconventional play can overcome an opponent. Take Henry Tran in the WSOP 2016 Main Event — one of our all-time favourite hands at Paul Phua Poker.

Tran is dealt three of clubs and two of hearts and his opponent, Ben Alcober, is dealt King of diamonds and eight of diamonds.
Before the flop, Tran opens middle position to two times the big blind. Alcober reacts to this by three betting out of small blind to 25k. The pot has now grown to 43.5k, but the action does not stop here. Tran then makes an astonishing four bet which Alcober calls. The pot is now at 94.5k and the flop has not even been dealt.
The flop is nine of clubs, four of diamonds and seven of spades (a “rainbow” flop). Alcober leads out of position bluffing for 32k. Tran responds by re-bluffing and making it 65k. Alcober calls.
The turn peels off and it is the nine of spades. This gives the players a paired board and also puts two spades up there. Once the players see the turn they check to each other.
The river is the two of diamonds which completes no flushes and makes it unlikely that either player has a full house. But it does give Tran a pair of twos, together with top of the pair of nines on the board. Not enough you would think to win a big pot.
Alcober seizes the moment and bets 165k (which is over two thirds the size of the pot) even though the fans watching on TV know that all he has are the nines on the table.
Tran thinks for a moment and instead of folding, he then calls with his pair of twos and nines. Totally unexpected. Surely he couldn’t.
Alcober shows his King eight of diamonds, with a slightly meek expression on his face. Tran shows two, which makes his two pairs. Footage of the moment shows Tran hopping around the table, and other players open mouthed at what has happened. The commentators can hardly believe what they have seen either. Bluff, counterbluff, big raises followed by checks followed by raises. Unpredictable play. Great to watch.
Tran’s call wins him a huge pot at a critical juncture of the tournament. But the new generation of poker player would feel pretty uncomfortable making the sort of call Tran makes here, because the price is simply not right to be calling on the river. You are simply wrong too often for it to be a profitable call in the long run.
Looking a little closer it’s important to recognize that these guys have deep stacks in a multimillion dollar first-prize tournament. The amount of three-betting bloats the pot in a lot of ways which means that these guys are destined to play a huge pot from the start.
There are also a lot of mind games going on. These guys know each other’s style and they are trying to exploit that. Fortune favours the brave and in this case the bravest won the pot. Tran saw something in his opponent that did not add up and he acted on his read.
Tran’s big pot approach seems risky. But it demonstrates the enormous value of taking people out of their comfort zones and using it to the player’s advantage. Did Tran’s play affect Alcober’s decision-making and bet-sizing?

Another great example of where unconventional meets conventional in poker is Qui Nguyen at the World Series of Poker Main Event 2016.

Qui stunned the poker world with his play. Phil Hellmuth compared it to his own “white magic” style of play. Qui (like Hellmuth) is able to see beyond the realms of probability and pricing, and through to the core of the opponent, what they are thinking and how they are behaving. Poker wizardry.
This style has won Hellmuth 14 World Series of Bracelets. Hellmuth and Qui prove how effective emotional intelligence combined with deep understanding of the game can be highly lucrative.
The likes of Qui Nguyen, Henry Tran and also Scotty Nguyen are examples of traditional players who have adapted to modern-day poker, to take down titles or win cash whilst using less conventional methods and placing emphasis on playing the player, not just the cards.
On the one hand, yes, poker is at heart a game of math and science. Math, for obvious reasons, and science too because science simply asks the question: “Why?” Something we should all be doing at all times in poker. Keep evaluating, as Paul is always saying. And yes the top online players have a mathematical orientation, it is true. You have to understand probability and hand computations to a certain level.
But it is a mistake to forget the other half of the brain. Poker is holistic and the likes of Tran, Hellmuth and Nguyen show that. It is the blend of the old style pros (who love the ebbs and flows of the live game and who play out of the box poker), and more math orientated online pros that make Texas Holdem poker in 2017 such an exciting game to watch and play.

Dan Colman, interviewed here for the Paul Paul Poker School, is ranked third in the world in live tournament earnings. Paul Phua picks three key tips on poker strategy from the video