Tag: poker school

In this latest “In Conversation” video for the Paul Phua Poker School, Wai Kin Yong and Rui Cao share three secrets for poker success, and remember an amazing hero call. Paul Phua picks the video highlights

If the Triton Super High Roller Series has a break-out star, it’s surely Wai Kin Yong. My young friend has had a superb run: in three Triton SHR tournaments between September 2016 and February 2017, he won twice and came sixth once, for a total of more than US$3m.
Watch this new video for the Paul Phua Poker School, in which Wai Kin Yong explores the secrets of his success with me and Rui Cao, one of the most respected of all French players.

  1. Learn from other poker players

In Wai Kin Yong and Rui Cao’s previous Paul Phua Poker School video, they talked about their aggressive playing style. But actually, as you will find in this new video, Wai Kin Yong achieved poker tournament success only when he tempered that style with a little more caution. In poker tournaments your chips are more precious than in cash: you cannot rebuy. It makes sense to take a slightly less aggressive strategy, and to narrow your hand range.
Here, Wai Kin Yong gives credit to his excellent mentor, the pro Mikael Thuritz. “He’s a great teacher,” says Wai Kin Yong. “I mean, he improved my game, like, 500% maybe!”
Rui Cao, too, stresses the importance of learning from others, no matter how high a level you reach at poker. “I used to watch a lot of videos,” says Rui Cao, “talk with a lot of friends, so it’s not a single person, but just a group of people who made me a better player. I like to talk with good players all the time, so little by little I become better, l think.”

  1. Play the poker player, not the cards

Wai Kin Yong and Rui Cao have played poker together many times, but when asked for their most memorable hand, they both immediately think of the same one.
On a board that ended up something like 7-4-J-6-A, Wai Kin Yong held just pocket nines. All the same, when Rui Cao check-raised the flop, bet the turn, then jammed the river, Wai Kin Yong still managed to call him down! It shows how important it is to know your opponent’s playing style: Wai Kin Yong evidently decided Rui Cao was capable of a triple-barrel bluff.
Wai Kin Yong explains: “I was like, ‘Hmm, it’s Rui Cao. I call with nines. Good!’ And he got so mad about it. I called with nines, ha ha!”
That fearlessness, that ability to trust your read no matter how intimidating the bet, is one of the many things that separates the true poker pro from the amateur.

  1. Play for love of the game, not just money

Finally, we discuss what it takes to be good at poker. Rui Cao believes you need to play from the heart as much as the head; for love, not money.
“If you play the game to win money,” says Rui Cao, “you can be a top player, but you won’t be world class. Maybe you are going to be able to win a little bit, but you’re not going to love it. I think loving the game is the most important thing in poker.”
Wai Kin Yong returns to the opening theme of the video when he says: “I think the most important thing for beginners is their willingness to learn, and admit that you’re not good, you know. Whereas l have known people who play poker every day, and they are losing every day, but they just think it’s  bad luck. And l don’t think poker has that much bad luck.
“You have to question yourself, and improve.”

In his second video for the Paul Phua Poker School, Dan “Jungleman” Cates reveals why aggression pays. Paul Phua picks the interview highlights.

If you have been playing poker for as long as I have, you will have noticed that playing styles have become more aggressive over the years. The aggressor is the one able to take initiative, and aggressive raising also gives you “fold equity”, forcing a fold from a stronger hand. These days there are many expert players who 3-bet pre-flop with hands that others might not even call with.
It makes them unpredictable and hard to play against. They might have Ace-King, Ace-Queen or a big pair… but they might also have just suited connectors!


 

Why Dan Cates 3-bets with 5-3 suited

In his previous video interview for the Paul Phua Poker School, Dan “Jungleman” Cates talked about the aggression that has made him one of the world’s best heads-up players – “I just try to win all the pots I can!” In this second “In Conversation With Paul Phua” video for the Paul Phua Poker School, Dan “Jungleman” Cates talks in greater detail about the hands he likes to 3-bet with.
“If we’re playing in our game,” says Jungleman, “the deep game [high-stakes cash], l’d 3-bet the biggest hands, obviously, but also, like, the bluffs that play the best post-flop, the ‘best bluffs’ so to speak. Like 6-5 suited, 5-3 suited, obviously.”
It may not be obvious to less experienced players that one could raise with 5-3 suited! But that’s what makes Jungleman one of the most successful poker pros around. Dan Cates made more than $10 million profit on the Full Tilt poker site before transitioning to live games, and has since racked up more than $5 million in tournament cashes.

Why 3-bets depend on player and position

As with everything in poker strategy, how you 3-bet will depend on who you are playing against. Jungleman explains: “If someone plays either like tight or aggressive or whatever, l would rather not 3-bet something like AJ offsuit. But if they play passive, and like, just call down or don’t have too many moves, l’d rather 3-bet AJ offsuit a lot.”
And of course it also depends on your position. Jungleman continues: “Or maybe some players I might want to 3-bet more than others, like, if l want to play more in position with them or whatever.”

Why size matters in bluffing

One strategy I have noticed some aggressive poker pros adopt is to deliberately bet more with their bluffs to create a bigger pot. By the time the river comes, the pot is so large that many amateur players will not dare to call with anything much less than the nuts.
In this new Paul Phua Poker School video interview, I ask Jungleman about that. “l think it can make sense to do that,” he agrees. “l mean, l think at least in theory things are quite a bit more complicated, for various reasons.
“l mean, you can manipulate pot stack size if you just know, like, how much they’re going to call on the turn and then fold on the river, if someone just always calls and folds on the river or something. But l think that’s kind of a complicated subject.”
What he means is, this is not something you should try unless you genuinely are an expert player!

How often should you bluff?

Jungleman also talks about when and how to bluff: “The one thing l think about more is how many bluffs do l want to turn up with. In pretty much every situation, basically, you can kind of, like, weight the value of various different bluffs in a lot of the spots and, like, how strong ranges players have. l think about stuff like that…”
And then Jungleman shows that, however aggressive the pro players can be, for the most part they still follow the most simple and fundamental poker advice of all: “But mostly l try to play big pots with big hands

Who is Daniel “Jungleman” Cates? Poker player profile

  • Dan Cates, 27, from the United States, is one of the world’s leading heads-up poker players.
  • He plays online under the names “Jungleman12” and “w00ki3z”.
  • He has made more than $10 million profit on the Full Tilt poker site.
  • He has nearly $5 million in live tournament cashes.
  • He often plays cash poker for high stakes in “the Big Game” in Macau and Manila.
  • He is known for his aggressive style of play.

 

Dan Colman, interviewed here for the Paul Paul Poker School, is ranked third in the world in live tournament earnings. Paul Phua picks three key tips on poker strategy from the video

A few weeks ago the Paul Phua Poker School presented a video interview with Dan Colman, the poker prodigy who has won more than $28m in live tournaments at the age of 26. Watch that video, and read about Dan Colman’s poker career, here.
I am delighted now to put out this second video interview between myself, Paul Phua, and the reclusive young poker pro. These are some of the important lessons to be learned from it:

Adapt to changing poker strategies

Dan Colman’s chief message here is one close to my own heart. You know that famous phrase, “poker takes a few minutes to learn, and a lifetime to master”? It’s true! I have played for years, against top pros like Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan and Dan Cates, and still find there is so much more to learn. Part of that is because, as Dan Colman says here, “poker is always evolving”. He doesn’t mean the rules of poker, he means poker strategy.
Terms like 3-bet and 4-bet and Game Theory Optimal, or the software that pros use to analyse the mathematically perfect strategy and the odds in any given poker hand, were unknown when more experienced pros such as Phil Ivey were starting out. Poker strategy is changing all the time. It’s our aim at Paul Phua Poker to help you keep on top of it. If, like Dan Colman, you are prepared to put in the effort to learn, the rewards can be great.

Seek out poker strategy advice

Also, remember that articles and videos are not in themselves enough. You know that old phrase, “two heads are better than one”? It’s a good idea to seek out the advice of friends who also play poker. It’s even better if you can persuade a more experienced player whom you admire to give you advice on problem hands.
I have been lucky enough to play against some of the best in the world. I am still humble and attentive when players like Tom Dwan comment on a hand I have played, and give tips on how I might improve my poker strategy in the future.
Even Dan Colman, despite his prodigious success, is happy to ask for a second opinion. As he says in our video interview, “A big part is having friends that are very good players and even better than you to where you are telling them a hand or why you did something then they can be critical of it and say, ‘No, I wouldn’t do that, I don’t like your play’.  Then you can think ‘Hmm, maybe you’re right’ and then work on that. So it’s important to talk poker with other good players.”

Vary your poker playing style

The other thing I enjoyed in this video interview was talking to Dan Colman about poker playing styles. We all evolve a poker playing style that suits our temperament: some are naturally more aggressive, some naturally tighter. Both styles can be effective when used correctly, against the right opponents at the right time.
But sometimes we must vary our poker playing style. As Dan Colman says in our new video interview, “How I play really depends on the players at my table, as well as my stack size and the payouts [in a tournament], because depending on if there’s a big pay jump and my stack is pretty short I might have to really be cautious and try to advance up the pay ladder. But when you have a big stack you can just put on a lot of pressure and win a lot of pots uncontested.”
There is another point to consider. As written in a previous Paul Phua Poker blog, sometimes we must do the unexpected to make money and win the pot. Or, as Dan Colman, memorably puts it, he will “zig when they think I’m going to zag”.
Don’t miss out on future video interviews with the pros. Subscribe for free to the Paul Phua Poker YouTube channel.

Who is Daniel Colman? Poker player profile

  • Born in 1990, Daniel (Dan) Colman was talent-spotted as a teenager by poker pro Olivier Busquet, who became his mentor
  • He became the first online hyper-turbo poker player to win more than $1 million in a year
  • He won his first WSOP bracelet, and $15.3 million, in the Big One for One Drop poker tournament at the age of 22
  • Daniel Colman has more than $28 million in live poker tournament earnings, ranking him third in the world

In the first of a 10-part series, the Paul Phua Poker School looks at how the world’s biggest poker tournament began

The World Series of Poker (WSOP) has witnessed extraordinary dramas and created huge stars. In a 10-part mini-series, the Paul Phua Poker School picks 10 key events from the WSOP’s rich history, from Phil Hellmuth becoming world champion aged 24 to internet poker coming of age. We start with the humble origins of the WSOP, and how “the Grand Old Man of Poker” earned his name.

1970: the very first World Series of Poker

When you see the palatial ballrooms of the Rio casino in Las Vegas filled with hundreds of poker tables, and hear the constant clatter of chips filling the air, it’s hard to picture the World Series of Poker’s humble beginnings back in 1970. In those days, Binion’s Horseshoe Casino didn’t even have a poker room. But its publicity-savvy owner, Jack Binion, scented an opportunity when he saw the top poker players of the age gathered at a Texas Gamblers’ Reunion in 1969.
The next year, he invited them to play at Binion’s. Doyle “Texas Dolly” Brunson was there, along with Jack “Treetop” Straus, “Amarillo Slim” Preston, “Titanic” Thompson and “Puggy” Pearson. But there was no tournament, just several days of mixed cash games, after which they were all invited to choose the best all-round player. Legend has it that each man voted for himself! So Binion then asked them to vote for whoever they thought was second only to themselves: Johnny Moss was crowned champion.

Who was Johnny Moss?

Born in 1907, Johnny Moss had been gambling since he was a boy, and as a teenager was hired by a saloon in his hometown of Dallas, Texas to spot anyone trying to cheat. His legendary five-month heads-up poker marathon against Nick the Greek in 1949 – legendary, in that Moss told the story, but it has not been fully substantiated – was thrillingly documented in Al Alvarez’s classic book The Biggest Game in Town. It was no surprise that Johnny Moss could command the respect of his peers.

1971: the first World Series of Poker tournament

In 1971, after a Los Angeles Times reporter told Jack Binion that he needed more of a competition if he wanted press coverage, the World Series of Poker took on the format we would recognise today: a freezeout tournament. Seven players paid the $5,000 buy-in. Though the individual hands have not been documented, it is known that after two days Johnny Moss won fair and square.
“It does show we voted for the right guy,” said Doyle Brunson later.

The Grand Old Man of Poker

Earning the nickname “The Grand Old Man of Poker”, Moss played at every WSOP until the year of his death in 1995, aged 88, winning nine bracelets in all. In one of his final interviews, at a poker table in Binion’s that year, he said: “I’ve been playing since I was 10 years old. I guess I know what I’m doing by now.”

Who was Johnny Moss? Key facts

  • Born in 1907, Johnny Moss learned to gamble as a boy
  • Beat Nick the Greek for a rumoured $2m in a five-month heads-up poker marathon
  • Nicknamed “the Grand Old Man of Poker”
  • First World Series of Poker champion, and winner of nine WSOP bracelets

Come back tomorrow to read part 2 in our 10 part series on the World Series of Poker. Tomorrow we will revealing how the “Doyle Brunson hand” got its name.

Want to improve your poker strategy? Paul Phua gives his insights into how to profit from this tricky hand

Pocket Jacks can be a tricky hand to play, especially for amateurs.
As for me, I’m always happy to see a pair of Jacks. It’s true, however, that there is no simple formula for how to play this hand. It depends very much on your position, your opponent’s position, your stack sizes, and whether they are loose or tight.
The problem with Jacks is that this hand is unlikely to improve: as with any pocket pair, there is only a 1 in 8 chance of making a set on the flop. And if an overcard comes, as it will often, there is a good chance you will be beaten. In this case hopefully you can have some reads on your opponent. If you don’t know them very well you can face some quite tough decisions – and there’s no easy guide for how to make them.

Pre-flop strategy with pocket Jacks

If I get pocket Jacks vs. an UTG (under the gun – meaning first to act) raise, I would usually just call. It can depend on his stack size and who my opponent is, but often I would end up just calling, especially if deeper than 50BB. If shorter than 50BB I would usually raise and gamble with him if he goes all-in, since then he may have AQ, or pocket 10s even, unless he is a very tight player. I would usually re-raise vs. a later position raise.
And in a tournament, if I myself am short-stacked with say 25BB or less and I get pocket Jacks, it’s usually a good hand to go all-in with. And if I have 15BB or less I would almost always be happy to go all-in.

Post-flop strategy with pocket Jacks

An overcard to your Jacks will arrive often, and if several players are in the hand, you are likely to be beaten at this point, and you should be prepared to fold. But if only one other player is in the hand, or sometimes even two, don’t necessarily give up straight away.
Let’s say the overcard is an Ace, and someone bets out. Then yes, I would often fold. But what if it’s a Queen? Or a King? Then you have to analyze deeper.
For instance, if a Queen comes, ask yourself: are they the type of player who raises pre-flop with AQ, or are they more likely to have AK? Are they a solid, straight-shooting player who only bets when they hit, or a more creative player who will semi-bluff with a draw? I have made a lot of money with Jacks against pro players by simply calling on three streets. They might for instance bet with a gutshot draw on the turn, then bomb the river when they don’t hit.
You might ask: why do I just call in this situation, and not raise if I think I’m ahead? It’s because if they have a weaker hand, they will fold to my raise, and I lose out on winning more money.
Even when my Jacks are an overpair I often will just call. If your opponent is representing something stronger than you, why would you raise him? If he has it, your money is gone. If he doesn’t have it, he’s bluffing. So this is one of the many mistakes amateurs make.

Common errors with pocket Jacks

Some less experienced players get so worried by pocket Jacks that they have developed an inflexible strategy: there is a group of players who will usually flat-call from any position, and fold to any overcard on the flop; and another group who usually raise extra-big pre-flop in the hope of taking it down straight away, without having to worry about post-flop strategy.
The first group will lose out on a lot of value that Jacks can bring, but at least they won’t get in too much trouble. The second group is in worse shape. Yes, everyone is likely to fold if you shove all-in or make a massive overbet pre-flop. But you won’t make much money from that. And if you do get called, it’s almost always by a better hand. AK will often call here, and you’ll be the slight favourite; but so will QQ, KK and AA, and then you’ll be in big trouble.
The same is true post-flop: some players with Jacks will raise big, even go all-in, if the flop is all low cards. They see it as protecting their hand. But again, they miss out on value when everyone with a worse hand folds; and they lose everything if someone calls with a lucky two pair or a set – or bigger overpair.
So you can see, there is no one easy way to play Jacks, and you must take many factors into consideration. But don’t give up. They are one of the best starting hands, so just try to play them well.

A quick guide to playing pocket Jacks

  • With pocket Jacks, you should usually call an UTG (under the gun) raise
  • You might re-raise vs. a later position raise
  • Only go all-in pre-flop if short-stacked
  • Don’t overplay your pocket Jacks post-flop: often you should call, not raise

 
 

With the results now in of Mike Noori’s prop bet to eat $1,000 of McDonald’s in just 36 hours, Paul Phua lists five more poker prop bets that were even crazier

In the first part of my top 10, I wrote that poker player Mike Noori would be attempting to eat $1,000 of McDonald’s food in just 36 hours for a prop bet. The results of the weekend’s food-fest are in, and… he failed. To be fair, most people thought it was physically impossible!
Mike Noori entered the event in good spirit, dressed up as McDonald’s character the Hamburglar, and Tweeting video clips and updates as @McHamburgler1k. However, the writing was on the wall when he Tweeted: “10 hours in, $90 worth of food consumed. Mental state = shaky”. The final Tweet conceding defeat said that it had been “a fun time” and that the event had raised $14k for charity.
Will poker players go to any lengths for a prop bet? Judge for yourself, with the final five entries in my top 10, below.

Ashton Griffin and the ultra marathon

Poker players don’t always take the greatest care of themselves, which makes Ashton Griffin’s prop bet feat particularly impressive. In 2011, he claimed he could run 70 miles on a treadmill within 24 hours, and got enough people interested in the action to have $300,000 riding on success. Griffin was just 22, and hugely fit; he must have known he could do it, because he went out partying the night before his physical ordeal. Despite concerns for his health – his own parents turned up halfway through to plead with him to stop – he completed the 70 miles with 45 minutes to spare. Talk about “running good”!

Dan Bilzerian and the Vegas bike challenge

You might more readily associate Dan Bilzerian with private jets than bicycles, but the poker-playing playboy also completed an impressive physical challenge for a prop bet. He was bet $600,000 that he couldn’t cycle from Los Angeles to Las Vegas in less than 48 hours. Bilzerian had hardly touched a bicycle in years, so he left nothing to chance. He says he spent nearly $150,000 on preparing for the feat of endurance, including getting coaching from Lance Armstrong. In the end, it wasn’t even close: Bilzerian aced it in just 33 hours.

Joe Sebek and the face tattoos

Many prop bets involve tattoos, or haircuts. After being eliminated from the 2002 WSOP Main Event by Robert Varkonyi, Phil Hellmuth said he would shave his head if Varkonyi went on to win. He did, and Hellmuth honoured the bet. But the one the players likely regret most was a “last longer” bet between Joe Sebok, Jeff Madsen, and Gavin Smith: the loser had to get tattooed with the others’ faces. Sebok is the one with a permanent ink reminder on his skin of both men, while Jeff Madsen, who busted out next, “only” had to have a tattoo of Gavin Smith.

Ted Forrest, Mike Matusow and the crash diet

In 2008, Mike “The Mouth” Matusow won a $100,000 bet from Ted Forrest by losing 60lbs in a year. Two years later, the tables were turned: this time it was Forrest who had to get down to a trim 140lbs, by losing 48lbs. Forrest bet $50,000 at 10:1 he could do it in just four months, and another $100,000 at 20:1 he could do it in two. Two months to lose 40lbs is a tall order, but with $2 million riding on his crash diet, Forrest literally starved himself for the last ten days and made it just before the shorter deadline.

John Hennigan and the exile to Iowa

One of the most telling of all prop bet stories is told by Howard Lederer. Poker player John Hennigan was once bet that he couldn’t spend a quiet six weeks in casino-free Des Moines, Iowa. Some say the bet was $50,000, some say it was $100,000, but it certainly sounds like an easy enough bet to win. Hennigan even said he was looking forward to working on his golf. But after just two days he bought out of the bet and returned sheepishly to Vegas. It seems like the only prop bet a dedicated gambler can’t possibly win is a bet not to gamble!

What is “short-deck” poker? This is just one of the things Paul Phua discusses with Phil Ivey in the latest Paul Phua Poker School video, along with strategy tips for beginners

Do beginners have an easier time at poker these days? In the latest Paul Phua Poker School video, we welcome back the great Phil Ivey. Last time we talked about the thrills and challenges poker holds, even for a player as experienced as Phil. This time we focus on beginners to the game, as well as a fun variant on Texas Hold ’Em called “short-deck poker” or “Six Plus Hold ’Em”.


Poker can be a hard game to break into: experienced players may punish you if they sense weakness, and though it is easy to learn the basic rules, it can take a while to understand all the odds and strategies. But as Phil Ivey says in this video interview, “Because of all the information that’s available, with the different teaching schools and things that are available now, different ways of learning that are out there, and with Paul’s teaching site, I think everyone is catching up.”
When Phil Ivey started out in poker, winning his first WSOP bracelet when he was just 23, internet poker was in its infancy. There were a few strategy books, such as Doyle Brunson’s Super System, but not the virtual library of tips that is out there now.
“I didn’t have schools,” says Phil Ivey in the video interview. “I didn’t have teaching sites. I didn’t have different tools I could learn from.” His most important lessons, he says, came just from trial and error.

A big tip for beginners

So one big tip for beginners is to learn everything they can from sites like Paul Phua Poker! And always be aware that however much you think you know, there is always more to learn. As Phil Ivey points out in our video interview, “beginners have a certain selection of hands in their minds that they want to play, and they just stick with that”.
Instead, he encourages players to experiment: “Start learning which hands you can play, in which positions, which hands you can bluff with, which hands you should call with.”
And as I say in the video, your play should also vary according to the structure of the games – whether there are antes or straddles involved, for instance – as well as whether the other players are aggressive or tight.
If it sounds complicated, that’s because it is! Phil Ivey has devoted two decades to perfecting his game. I know Phil pretty well, as we have played together many, many times. And, as I also say in the video, I think one of the most impressive things about him is not just his grasp of strategy, but his strength of character. He just never seems to go on tilt, and that’s something I try to model myself on.

“Short-deck” or “Six-Plus Hold ’Em”

There are more useful tips in the video, so do watch it. But one thing I perhaps need to explain more is the “short deck game” that we talk about in the interview. We often like to play this game when we get together. It is very similar to Texas Hold ’Em, but with fewer cards.
Before you start you remove from the deck all the low cards, deuce through to 5, which is why the game is also known as “Six Plus Hold ’Em”. It’s a more exciting game than Texas Hold ’Em in many ways, because with the low cards taken out you are more often dealt high cards and big pairs. You also have to adapt to a different set of odds. Post-flop, you have a nearly 1 in 2 chance of completing an open-ended straight draw by the river, for instance, compared with nearly 1 in 3 in classic Texas Hold ’Em.
As Phil Ivey says in the video interview, “There’s a lot of gambling involved. The equities run pretty close, so it’s pretty easy to get your money in the middle and be 50/50 or somewhere near that. It suits a more gambling style of player.”
Phil thinks this makes the short-deck game perfect for the beginner. But if so, I have just one piece of advice. You still don’t want to be playing against Phil Ivey!
For more Paul Phua Poker School videos, subscribe to the YouTube channel. It’s free!

The Paul Phua Poker School chart of common poker odds will dramatically improve your game. Paul Phua gives tips on how they should affect your strategy

In my last three articles in this mini-series on poker odds, I explained why they matter; how you can calculate them with a simple magic formula; and how to apply the odds in your play using a nut flush draw as an example.
But in the heat of the moment, you may not have time to calculate the odds, even using the magic formula. So be sure to learn this list of the most useful poker odds. I promise it will revolutionise your game.
I have added playing tips to each one, to show how knowing the odds can improve your strategy.

Odds of getting these cards dealt pre-flop

Pocket Aces: 1 in 220

If you are so tight that you will only play with Aces, you will have a long wait! You’ll be dealt pocket Aces – or Kings, or Queens, or any specific pair – just 1 in 220 hands. That’s no more than once a day in live play. You’ll get AK, however, once in every 82 hands.

Pocket pair: 1 in 17

It’s rare to be dealt a pocket pair, so don’t waste them. A large pocket pair (QQ, KK, AA, plus JJ or 10-10 depending on previous bets and your position) should raise or re-raise pre-flop, then bet the flop unless an overcard hits. A smaller pocket pair should usually “set mine”, ie call if it’s cheap, and hope for a set on the flop.

Two suited cards: 1 in 4

Suited cards look pretty, but can quickly drain your chips. It’s best to play them only when they are high cards in their own right, or when they are connected to give you an additional chance of a straight draw. Relax: now you know you are dealt them every four hands, you can afford to wait for better ones.

Odds of hitting the flop

A pair: 1 in 3

If you hold unpaired cards pre-flop, your chance of making a pair on the flop is just 1 in 3. The good news is that any single opponent is also unlikely to have hit.

A set from a pocket pair: 1 in 8

If you are dealt a pocket pair, your chance of hitting a set on the flop is about 1 in 8. Even so, it’s often worth “set mining” even with a low pair, as you can often win much more than 8x your investment if you do hit a set.

Odds from flop to river

Flush draw: 1 in 3

If you have a flush draw on the flop, your chance of completing it by the river is slightly higher than 1 in 3. If you can only double your money, eg you’re against just one other player, it usually doesn’t make sense to keep calling and chasing the draw.

Flush draw plus another draw: 1 in 2

As explained here, a flush draw with an overcard such as an Ace, or an inside straight draw, is a much stronger hand. Be alert to the extra outs that make flush draws much more profitable.

“Open-ended” straight draw: 1 in 3

An “open-ended” straight draw is where you hold four consecutive cards, so a card at either end would complete the straight. This gives you 8 outs: slightly worse odds than a flush draw. Beware too of someone else drawing to a flush. You then have only 6 outs, as two of your cards would also complete their flush.
“Gutshot” straight draw: 1 in 6
An inside straight draw, nicknamed a “gutshot” or “belly buster”, is where only one middle card will complete your straight – eg you have 5689 and need the 7. This is a huge leak for inexperienced players: you almost never have the correct pot odds to call with this hand. Look out for the “double belly buster”, where two middle cards could make you a straight, eg you have 467810 and need the 5 or the 9. This is nearly 1 in 3.

A full house from a set: 1 in 3

If you’re unlucky enough to flop a set against a straight or flush, you’re still in better shape than you might think. Your chance of getting a full house with the final two cards is 1 in 3. Your chance of two pairs becoming a house are, however, just 1 in 6.

All-in pre-flop: who wins by the river?

In the late stages of a tournament, short stacks are often forced to shove all-in with less than premium hands, and are then called by a player with high cards. As the following set of odds shows, there is always hope for the underdog (these odds will change slightly in different circumstances, eg if cards are suited or have straight draw potential):
Pocket pair v overcards, eg 55 v AK: 54%
Highest card v next two best, eg A6 v K7: 60%
Highest card v second highest, eg A9 v K8: 65%
Both cards higher, eg A9 v 72: 68%
“Dominating” your opponent by duplicating their kicker, eg A7 v K7: 74%
Higher pair against lower pair, eg KK v 88: 81%

In the third part of the Paul Phua Poker School series on poker odds, Paul Phua gives tips on predicting the future to improve your present strategy

Would it not be wonderful to have the power to predict the future? It would certainly be easy to make money at betting! Film-lovers will recall how using a sports almanac from the future made Biff Tannen a rich man in the second Back to the Future film.
We can’t all have a DeLorean time machine, but in poker we have the next best thing. We have the ability to predict what is likely to happen in the future, and to change our strategy accordingly.
In the first two parts in this mini-series on poker odds, I gave tips on why odds are important, and how to calculate them using a simple magic formula. We have seen already how knowing our likelihood of winning will affect how much we bet. Now here is an interesting application in practical play:

How to play a nut flush draw

As I said in my video on the best pre-flop hands, a suited Ace has great potential as a starting hand, even if your kicker is low. An Ace on the flop often gives you the best hand, though be prepared to fold to opposition if your kicker is weak. And if you flop a flush draw, you are in a very powerful position – more powerful than many people realise.
Let’s take the starting hand shown in my video: A4 of diamonds. The flop comes K5 of diamonds, with a 9 of spades. Another player bets. First, do what you should always do when someone bets: work out what hand they are likely to hold.
There’s no strong straight draw out there; if he has a flush draw it’s worse than yours; sets are uncommon. You can’t put him on AK, as he didn’t seem that strong in pre-flop betting, so you reckon he has a K: maybe KQ or KJ. So he likely has top pair, and you have nothing – yet! But you have great potential. Let’s work out how much.

Count up your “outs”

There are nine diamonds left to come that complete our flush, plus three Aces to give us a higher pair: that’s 12 “outs”. Using our magic formula for calculating the odds, that gives us 12 x 4 = 48% chance of winning by the river. [Mathematicians say the real figure is 45% –the magic formula isn’t perfect, but it’s close enough.]
That’s a nearly 1 in 2 chance of winning the pot! Pretty good odds. But the great thing about poker is it’s not all cold, hard math. It takes strategy and psychology to decide how to play those odds.
Your instinct here will be to call, and hope to hit. That’s a reasonable strategy, and the more people who are in the hand, the better it is. You will likely take all their money if you hit your nut flush – thus being paid several times your investment.
But let’s look at another, more advanced strategy, one that is particularly valuable if only one other player is in the hand.

Re-raising for “fold equity”

Unless you are keen to keep a number of people in the pot, a great tactic against a single opponent is to re-raise rather than call. Re-raising gives you “fold equity”. That’s a fancy way of saying it gives you an extra chance at winning: if they get scared and fold, congratulations! You’ve won the pot with the worst hand. And if they call, you’re still a coin-flip to win by the river.
To have fold equity, your bet should be big enough to make them fold. Simply doubling their bet is almost never enough. Even a weak King is likely to call and hope you are semi-bluffing with a flush draw (which you are!), or that they hit two pair on the turn.
So how much do you raise? That calls for psychology: is this player a holder or a folder? Some people are “calling stations” who will call almost any bet with a pair. With a person like this, you may need to raise bigger. Either way, do it confidently. If you are relatively short-stacked, you can even shove all-in. Don’t worry! You are nearly 50-50 to win even if they call.

If they do call – what next?

Maybe they realise you’re on flush draw. Maybe they’re just stubborn. Whichever, your opponent calls you, and the turn card is a blank – it doesn’t help. What now?
Usually now you have no fold equity: if they called a re-raise on the flop, they will often feel committed to call a bet on the turn. And now you have only one card left to come, not two, so your chances of winning are halved to than 1 in 4.
Unless you are a very experienced player with a strong read that your opponent may fold, it’s not worth inflating the pot with what are now poor odds of winning. You want to check. The good news is, your opponent will be wary of you and will usually also check, so you get a “free” card to see the river.
To sum up: when you re-raise on the flop, you have maybe a coin-flip chance of them folding to give you a small pot; and a coin-flip chance of them calling, in which case you then have a coin-flip chance of winning a big pot. Three quarters of the time, therefore, you are winning with a re-raise!

Other flush draws

Let’s just look quickly at other flush draw combinations that you might not be aware of.
Two more outs: Let’s say there was a 4 on the flop rather than the 5, giving your A4 of diamonds a small pair. Now you have two additional outs (either of the two 4s still to come would give you three of a kind to beat his pair of Kings), so you are even better than 50%.
Three more outs: Or let’s say the flop came K52. Now with your A4 you additionally have an inside straight draw, giving three extra outs. (There are four 3s that would make a straight. One of these is a diamond and you’ve already counted that out in your flush draw, hence three extra outs not four).
Three fewer outs: The flush draw to beware of is where you have no extra outs, just the nine cards for your flush. The magic formula tells us that your chances then are just 9 x 4 = 36%, ie 1 in 3. It’s a big leak in less experienced players’ strategy to chase this kind of flush draw against a single opponent.

In my next article on poker odds and strategy…

I hope the above example shows how knowing the odds – our own probability time machine that lets us peer into future likely outcomes – helps dictate our present strategy. In my next article, I will give you a useful chart of the most common. Learn it well! Read the next article.

Paul Phua introduces the first in an exciting new series of videos for the Paul Phua Poker School YouTube channel featuring some of the world’s top pros

If you want to improve your poker and become a winning player, there is no better place to start than by watching strategy tips from the top pros. Phil Ivey, Dan Cates and Dan Colman have very generously given up some of their valuable time to film this video for the Paul Phua Poker School – and with these high-stakes cash and tournament players, “valuable time” is not merely a figure of speech!
Phil Ivey is a ten times World Series of Poker bracelet winner, and one of the most fearless and creative players of the game. Dan “Jungleman” Cates passed the $10 million online cash earnings milestone nearly three years ago. And Dan Colman has graduated from internet poker (he rose to fame in 2013 as the first hyper-turbo player to win $1 million on Pokerstars in a year) to take down $28 million in live tournament play.
The Paul Phua Poker School YouTube video team caught up with these players at the Triton High Roller Series in Manila this February, and their tips for beginners are just as insightful as you would expect. And it’s not only beginners who can benefit from their strategy advice.


Phil Ivey tells players that “an important thing is to be able to manage their money”. This is very true: many a player has gone bust by moving too quickly to levels they cannot really afford. For more detailed advice, see my previous Paul Phua Poker School blog on bankroll management.
Dan Colman recommends that you should “get out of your comfort zone”, and “play in difficult games”. This may seem strange: why choose a difficult game if you can find one with poor players instead? But this is something I myself did when starting out in poker. I challenged myself to play with some of the world’s top pros in high-stakes cash games, not because I arrogantly thought I could beat them, but because I humbly felt I could learn from them. If I have any skill at poker (and Phil Ivey has been kind enough to say that “Paul Phua is probably the best non-pro I’ve ever played poker against”), it is thanks to learning from the best.
And if you do find yourself up against more experienced players, Dan Cates’ advice in the video may prove especially valuable. He says, “The first tip for beginners would be to play tighter than they think.” Unless you are sure you can outplay everyone else around the table, you should pick your poker battles with care, going armed with only the best starting hands.
Those are just a few of the useful tips in the video that will improve your poker game. Watch it now to discover more, and subscribe to the Paul Phua Poker School YouTube channel so as not to miss new videos in the series. It’s free!